Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.5% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, driven by robust forecasts from Deloitte (2.2%), S&P Global (2.2%), and Goldman Sachs (2.5%) versus economist consensus of 2.1%, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, stable unemployment near 4%, and Federal Reserve projections for modest expansion. Recent BEA revision on April 9 lowered Q4 2025 growth to 0.5% annualized due to a government shutdown, yet Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 at 1.6%, reinforcing growth momentum. This strong positioning reflects wisdom-of-crowds pricing amid historical soft-landing precedents. Realistic challenges include March CPI inflation surging to 3.3%, energy price spikes, or tariff escalations prompting tighter monetary policy; watch Q1 GDP advance estimate on April 30.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
हाँ
$21,296 वॉल्यूम
$21,296 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
हाँ
$21,296 वॉल्यूम
$21,296 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.5% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, driven by robust forecasts from Deloitte (2.2%), S&P Global (2.2%), and Goldman Sachs (2.5%) versus economist consensus of 2.1%, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, stable unemployment near 4%, and Federal Reserve projections for modest expansion. Recent BEA revision on April 9 lowered Q4 2025 growth to 0.5% annualized due to a government shutdown, yet Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 at 1.6%, reinforcing growth momentum. This strong positioning reflects wisdom-of-crowds pricing amid historical soft-landing precedents. Realistic challenges include March CPI inflation surging to 3.3%, energy price spikes, or tariff escalations prompting tighter monetary policy; watch Q1 GDP advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$21,296समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.5% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, driven by robust forecasts from Deloitte (2.2%), S&P Global (2.2%), and Goldman Sachs (2.5%) versus economist consensus of 2.1%, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, stable unemployment near 4%, and Federal Reserve projections for modest expansion. Recent BEA revision on April 9 lowered Q4 2025 growth to 0.5% annualized due to a government shutdown, yet Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 at 1.6%, reinforcing growth momentum. This strong positioning reflects wisdom-of-crowds pricing amid historical soft-landing precedents. Realistic challenges include March CPI inflation surging to 3.3%, energy price spikes, or tariff escalations prompting tighter monetary policy; watch Q1 GDP advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$21,296समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.5% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, driven by robust forecasts from Deloitte (2.2%), S&P Global (2.2%), and Goldman Sachs (2.5%) versus economist consensus of 2.1%, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, stable unemployment near 4%, and Federal Reserve projections for modest expansion. Recent BEA revision on April 9 lowered Q4 2025 growth to 0.5% annualized due to a government shutdown, yet Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 2026 at 1.6%, reinforcing growth momentum. This strong positioning reflects wisdom-of-crowds pricing amid historical soft-landing precedents. Realistic challenges include March CPI inflation surging to 3.3%, energy price spikes, or tariff escalations prompting tighter monetary policy; watch Q1 GDP advance estimate on April 30.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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