Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding trader consensus at 74.5% to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, driven by his 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush, incumbency advantages in this plurality-Black St. Louis-anchored district, and a dominant fundraising edge with superior cash-on-hand reported in latest filings this week. Bush, mounting a comeback after AIPAC-backed spending helped unseat her previously, released an internal HIT Strategies poll last week showing them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, bolstered by her higher 52% favorability and district Democrats' unfavorable views of AIPAC (40%) and ICE (86%), yet markets price in Bell's structural lead amid undecideds and historical base rates favoring incumbents.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
नया
4 अग, 2026
Wesley Bell
75%
Cori Bush
27%
नया
नया
4 अग, 2026
Wesley Bell
$5,069 वॉल्यूम
75%
Cori Bush
$4,386 वॉल्यूम
27%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding trader consensus at 74.5% to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, driven by his 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush, incumbency advantages in this plurality-Black St. Louis-anchored district, and a dominant fundraising edge with superior cash-on-hand reported in latest filings this week. Bush, mounting a comeback after AIPAC-backed spending helped unseat her previously, released an internal HIT Strategies poll last week showing them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, bolstered by her higher 52% favorability and district Democrats' unfavorable views of AIPAC (40%) and ICE (86%), yet markets price in Bell's structural lead amid undecideds and historical base rates favoring incumbents.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$9,454समाप्ति तिथि
4 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding trader consensus at 74.5% to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, driven by his 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush, incumbency advantages in this plurality-Black St. Louis-anchored district, and a dominant fundraising edge with superior cash-on-hand reported in latest filings this week. Bush, mounting a comeback after AIPAC-backed spending helped unseat her previously, released an internal HIT Strategies poll last week showing them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, bolstered by her higher 52% favorability and district Democrats' unfavorable views of AIPAC (40%) and ICE (86%), yet markets price in Bell's structural lead amid undecideds and historical base rates favoring incumbents.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
वॉल्यूम
$9,454समाप्ति तिथि
4 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding trader consensus at 74.5% to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, driven by his 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush, incumbency advantages in this plurality-Black St. Louis-anchored district, and a dominant fundraising edge with superior cash-on-hand reported in latest filings this week. Bush, mounting a comeback after AIPAC-backed spending helped unseat her previously, released an internal HIT Strategies poll last week showing them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely Democratic primary voters, bolstered by her higher 52% favorability and district Democrats' unfavorable views of AIPAC (40%) and ICE (86%), yet markets price in Bell's structural lead amid undecideds and historical base rates favoring incumbents.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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