Recent polls show CDU, AfD, Grüne, and Linke clustered between 15% and 21%, reflecting a fragmented Berlin electorate six months before the September 20, 2026, vote. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks a current majority in surveys, while AfD gains in eastern districts and urban progressive support for Grüne and Linke sustain close positioning among the top four. National trends under the federal CDU-led government and local issues such as housing, transport, and migration continue to split voter preferences without producing a clear frontrunner. This even distribution among multiple parties keeps the implied probability of any single winner narrow, with potential separation likely to emerge from late-campaign turnout shifts or coalition signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाINSA poll shows AfD surging to 42% in Saxony, far ahead of CDU
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony showed the AfD with 42% support, doubling the CDU's 21%. While this is a different state, the AfD's strong performance in eastern Germany likely influenced market perceptions of the party's prospects in Berlin, contributing to AfD price increases and CDU declines.
AfD surges in Berlin polls, nearing CDU support levels
AfD jumps to 27%8%
Mid-May polling data showed a significant rise in AfD support to around 27-28%, closing the gap with CDU and causing a sharp increase in AfD market prices, while CDU prices dropped sharply.
Green party surges in Berlin election polls, challenging CDU lead
Grüne jumps to 24%7%
In mid-May 2026, the Green party's polling surged to over 20%, narrowing the gap with the CDU and reflecting increased voter support. This caused a decline in CDU's market price and a rise for the Greens, indicating a more competitive race.
Grüne reach peak polling at 24% in Berlin, challenging CDU dominance
Grüne rises to 24%3%
By mid-May 2026, the Greens peaked at 24% in polls, reflecting increased voter support and putting pressure on the CDU, which was declining in market price, indicating a more competitive race.
Polls show Grüne surging to 25%, challenging CDU's lead in Berlin election
Grüne rises to 25%4%
Recent polls indicated a surge in support for the Grüne party, rising to 25%, which caused a decline in CDU's market price from 36% to 32% and a rise in Grüne's price, signaling a shift in voter preferences.
AfD gains momentum in Berlin election market amid rising support
AfD jumps to 25%6%
In May 2026, AfD's market price rose sharply from 19% to 25%, reflecting increased voter support and momentum. This may be linked to broader regional trends and voter concerns on immigration and security, boosting AfD's prospects in Berlin.
INSA poll shows AfD surging in Saxony with 42% support
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD reaching a record 42%, far ahead of CDU at 24%. Although this is a different state, the surge of AfD in eastern Germany likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price increase and CDU's decline in Berlin due to broader regional trends.
Federal polling shows CDU and SPD decline, AfD rising nationally
AfD jumps to 26%6%
Federal polls in May 2026 indicated a decline in support for the CDU and SPD, with AfD rising to second place nationally. This broader political context likely influenced Berlin market prices, contributing to the decline in CDU and SPD prices and the rise of AfD.
AfD surges to 19% in Berlin polls, overtaking SPD and Greens
AfD jumps to 19%7%
In early May 2026, polls showed a surge in AfD support to 19%, surpassing SPD and Greens, which increased market optimism for AfD reflected in price rising from 12% to 19%.
INSA poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 20%, AfD second at 18%
CDU drops to 30%8%
The INSA poll published on May 8, 2026, indicated CDU leading with 20%, followed by AfD at 18%, SPD at 16%, Grüne and Linke at 15% each. This reinforced market confidence in CDU's plurality chances and AfD's strong position, causing CDU prices to stabilize around 30% and AfD prices to rise to 25%.
AfD gains in polls, rising to second place behind CDU in Berlin election race
AfD jumps to 19%7%
Polls showed AfD increasing support to 19%, narrowing the gap with CDU, which contributed to AfD's market price rising from 12% to 19%, reflecting growing voter support and a more competitive election landscape.
New polls show CDU still leading but with shrinking margin
CDU dips to 35%3%
Early May polls confirmed CDU's lead at around 20-23%, but the gap to AfD, Grüne, and Linke narrowed significantly, reflecting a highly competitive race and causing market prices for CDU to drop and others to gain.
Poll shows AfD surging in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing absolute majority
AfD jumps to 26%7%
A poll by Infratest dimap on May 7, 2026, showed AfD surging to 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing an absolute majority. While this is outside Berlin, the AfD's national momentum likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price rise in Berlin markets during May 2026.
Infratest dimap poll shows AfD at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, CDU at 26%
AfD jumps to 26%6%
The May 7, 2026 Infratest dimap poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD increasing to 41%, with CDU declining to 26%, reinforcing AfD's momentum and impacting Berlin market perceptions of AfD's rising influence nationally.
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as mayor of Berlin after coalition talks
CDU jumps to 72%13%
On April 27, 2026, CDU leader Kai Wegner was approved as mayor of Berlin after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's leading role in Berlin's government. This event reinforced market confidence in CDU's victory, causing a price peak.
Resignation of Berlin's Culture Senator linked to CDU amid funding scandal
CDU drops to 51%11%
The resignation of Sarah Wedl-Wilson, a non-party member serving for CDU, over illegal funding allocations, negatively impacted CDU's public image and contributed to a decline in their polling and market prices in late April.
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election but coalition majority at risk
CDU dips to 52%3%
Polls in April 2026 indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in Berlin with around 20%, but the incumbent coalition (CDU and SPD) was projected to lose its parliamentary majority. This uncertainty contributed to volatility and decline in CDU and SPD market prices.
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly leading with 19-21%, AfD and Grüne close behind
CDU plunges to 40%16%
An April 2026 BerlinTrend poll indicated a tight race with CDU leading narrowly at around 19-21%, closely followed by AfD and Grüne at 15-18%, reflecting a fragmented field and causing market volatility with CDU prices declining and AfD and Grüne gaining.
Poll shows CDU narrowly leading with AfD, Grüne, and Linke close behind
CDU drops to 43%13%
A new poll indicated a tight race with CDU at 19%, and AfD, Grüne, and Linke all at 18%, causing a drop in CDU market price from 56% to 43% and gains for AfD and Grüne. This reflected growing competition and uncertainty about the election outcome.
Civey poll shows CDU still leading Berlin election with 23%
CDU rises to 60%4%
The Civey poll on March 26, 2026, indicated the CDU maintaining a slight lead at 23%, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne closely contesting. This poll reflected a stable but competitive race, influencing market prices to remain relatively steady for these parties.
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 23%
CDU surges to 26%26%
A March poll showed CDU maintaining leadership with slight gains, while AfD and Die Linke gained ground.
Bundestag election polls show CDU and AfD neck and neck around 25%
CDU dips to 54%3%
Late February 2026 polls for the Bundestag election showed CDU and AfD both around 25%, with SPD and Greens trailing. This parity between CDU and AfD in national polls likely affected Berlin market prices, reflecting uncertainty and competition between these parties.
INSA poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU dips to 56%2%
The INSA poll released on February 24, 2026, showed the CDU maintaining its lead at 22%, with AfD and SPD close behind. This poll contributed to market stability for CDU and AfD prices, reflecting ongoing competition among the top parties in Berlin.
INSA poll confirms CDU lead with 22%, AfD at 17% in Berlin election
CDU dips to 53%3%
The INSA poll on February 24, 2026, reaffirmed CDU's position as the leading party with 22%, while AfD held 17%. This poll maintained market expectations of a CDU victory but indicated a competitive field, affecting price adjustments for CDU and AfD.
CDU and SPD begin negotiations for grand coalition after Berlin election results
CDU rises to 60%4%
Following the 2023 repeat state election and ongoing political talks, the CDU and SPD voted to start negotiations for a grand coalition in early 2026. This political development supported CDU's position as the leading party, stabilizing its market price.
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 0%28%
A second major opinion poll confirmed CDU as frontrunner, reinforcing the market's initial CDU bias.
Civey poll confirms CDU lead in Berlin with 22%
CDU rises to 58%4%
The Civey poll published on January 23, 2026, reaffirmed the CDU's position as the leading party in Berlin with 22%, closely followed by Grüne and Die Linke. This reinforced market confidence in CDU's lead while showing a competitive multi-party race, affecting price movements for CDU and other parties.
AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll
AfD rises to 7%2%
In early 2026, the AfD extended its lead over the CDU in nationwide opinion polls, signaling growing support for AfD ahead of state elections including Berlin. This contributed to a rise in AfD's market price and a decline for CDU, reflecting shifting voter sentiment.
Infratest dimap poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 28%22%
A major opinion poll showed CDU as frontrunner, setting initial market expectations for a CDU-led outcome.
Infratest dimap poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU rises to 54%4%
A January 2026 poll by Infratest dimap indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in the upcoming Berlin state election with 22%, followed by Die Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD. This poll likely supported the CDU's relatively high market price early in the analysis window.
Criticism of CDU Mayor Kai Wegner's crisis management after Berlin power outage
CDU drops to 54%8%
The CDU faced public criticism for its handling of a major power outage in Berlin's southwest, which contributed to a decline in CDU's market price from 62% to 54%. This event signaled voter dissatisfaction impacting CDU's lead.
Grüne gains in Berlin polls, reaching 12% support
Grüne jumps to 12%7%
In mid-January 2026, polls showed a notable increase in support for the Grüne party, rising to 12%, signaling growing voter interest and causing a modest market uptick for the Greens.
AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll, set to win two State elections in 2026
AfD jumps to 12%7%
A nationwide poll published in early January 2026 showed the AfD at a record 27%, ahead of the CDU at 24%. This surge in AfD popularity caused a sharp drop in CDU market prices and a rise in AfD prices, reflecting increased expectations for AfD success in Berlin.
CDU emerges as clear frontrunner in Berlin polls with 20.2% support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Polls in early December 2025 showed the CDU leading with around 20.2% support, establishing it as the favorite to win the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election. This boosted market confidence in the CDU's chances, reflected in their price rising to around 60%.
Federal Constitutional Court rejects BSW recount appeal after 2025 election
BSW plunges to 1%49%
Following the 2025 German federal election, the BSW party requested a full recount citing overseas voting problems, but the Bundestag's election review committee rejected the request on December 4, 2025. This legal setback diminished BSW's perceived viability, reflected in the market price dropping to near zero.
CDU leads Berlin polls but faces declining support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Early December polls showed CDU as the frontrunner with around 25% support, but signs of weakening momentum emerged, causing market prices for CDU to fluctuate. This set the tone for a competitive election with no clear dominant party.
Berlin election scheduled for September 20, 2026
The official election date was confirmed, setting the timeline for the prediction market analysis.
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