Trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability for Israel-Saudi normalization before 2027, reflecting Riyadh's unwavering precondition of meaningful progress toward Palestinian statehood on 1967 borders—a demand unmet amid Israel's ongoing military operations in Gaza and stalled diplomatic efforts. Israeli media reported fading prospects in January 2026, followed by Saudi officials adopting a harsher tone toward Israel in February, clarifying steep normalization costs tied to Palestinian concessions. Prime Minister Netanyahu suggested potential after an operation against Iran ends (March 20), but no breakthroughs have emerged in the past 30 days, with recent mediation talks focusing on other regional deadlines rather than a deal. Regional tensions, including Iran threats, reinforce structural barriers like Netanyahu's coalition opposition to territorial compromises.