A fragile US-brokered 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective April 16 following six weeks of renewed hostilities with Hezbollah since early March, has prompted the first direct talks in decades, fueling cautious optimism for de-escalation. However, trader consensus implies just a 21.5% chance of full diplomatic normalization before 2027, reflecting Hezbollah's staunch opposition to disarmament, Israeli military outposts in southern Lebanon, ongoing border violations, and Lebanon's weak central government unable to enforce agreements. Historical precedents like prior ceasefires underscore deep-seated territorial disputes and proxy dynamics with Iran as major barriers, with upcoming negotiations unlikely to bridge these gaps swiftly.