Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.2% implied probability against the Federal Reserve being abolished before year-end 2026, reflecting the central bank's deeply entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy since 1913 and the absence of any viable legislative pathway. No bills have advanced in Congress, and recent FOMC communications under Chair Powell emphasize continuity amid stable inflation and labor markets, with Treasury yields and Fed funds rates showing no disruption signals. Political rhetoric, including from the Trump administration, has targeted reforms like chair replacement rather than outright elimination, lacking bipartisan support. Tail risks include a 2026 midterm populist surge or unforeseen financial crisis prompting radical overhaul, though structural hurdles—requiring congressional act and presidential assent—render these scenarios improbable. Upcoming midterms and Q2 economic data could test sentiment, but resolution proximity favors status quo pricing.