Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Soltani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Tehran's criticism of Buenos Aires' terrorist designation for the IRGC—marked the most recent such action, alongside U.S. disclosures of prior quiet expulsions of Iranian UN diplomats in late 2025 for national security concerns. With no new verifiable diplomatic incidents, plots, or escalations reported in the past two weeks across Europe, the Middle East, or Latin America, trader consensus reflects a 92% implied probability of no further expulsions by April 30, betting on de-escalation amid ongoing foreign policy tensions. Late-breaking sanctions, airstrikes, or intelligence revelations could still shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाएक और ईरानी राजनयिक को 30 अप्रैल तक निष्कासित कर दिया जाएगा?
एक और ईरानी राजनयिक को 30 अप्रैल तक निष्कासित कर दिया जाएगा?
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2026
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Soltani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Tehran's criticism of Buenos Aires' terrorist designation for the IRGC—marked the most recent such action, alongside U.S. disclosures of prior quiet expulsions of Iranian UN diplomats in late 2025 for national security concerns. With no new verifiable diplomatic incidents, plots, or escalations reported in the past two weeks across Europe, the Middle East, or Latin America, trader consensus reflects a 92% implied probability of no further expulsions by April 30, betting on de-escalation amid ongoing foreign policy tensions. Late-breaking sanctions, airstrikes, or intelligence revelations could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$9,797समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Soltani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Tehran's criticism of Buenos Aires' terrorist designation for the IRGC—marked the most recent such action, alongside U.S. disclosures of prior quiet expulsions of Iranian UN diplomats in late 2025 for national security concerns. With no new verifiable diplomatic incidents, plots, or escalations reported in the past two weeks across Europe, the Middle East, or Latin America, trader consensus reflects a 92% implied probability of no further expulsions by April 30, betting on de-escalation amid ongoing foreign policy tensions. Late-breaking sanctions, airstrikes, or intelligence revelations could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$9,797समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Soltani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Tehran's criticism of Buenos Aires' terrorist designation for the IRGC—marked the most recent such action, alongside U.S. disclosures of prior quiet expulsions of Iranian UN diplomats in late 2025 for national security concerns. With no new verifiable diplomatic incidents, plots, or escalations reported in the past two weeks across Europe, the Middle East, or Latin America, trader consensus reflects a 92% implied probability of no further expulsions by April 30, betting on de-escalation amid ongoing foreign policy tensions. Late-breaking sanctions, airstrikes, or intelligence revelations could still shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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