Traders' near-unanimous 95.3% implied probability on "No" for a 100% tariff on Canada by June 30 stems from President Trump's January 2026 threat being explicitly conditional on Canada finalizing a trade deal with China—a trigger unmet after Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos remarks prompted swift denials from Ottawa. Amid the ongoing US-Canada trade tensions under USMCA, existing tariffs remain at 25-35% levels tied to border security and fentanyl flows, with no executive orders or announcements escalating to 100% despite intermittent rhetoric. Deeply integrated supply chains and mutual economic reliance reinforce trader consensus against such disruption. Realistic shifts could arise from verified Canada-China negotiations, diplomatic breakdowns, or heightened migration crises before the deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$43,968 वॉल्यूम
$43,968 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$43,968 वॉल्यूम
$43,968 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.Traders' near-unanimous 95.3% implied probability on "No" for a 100% tariff on Canada by June 30 stems from President Trump's January 2026 threat being explicitly conditional on Canada finalizing a trade deal with China—a trigger unmet after Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos remarks prompted swift denials from Ottawa. Amid the ongoing US-Canada trade tensions under USMCA, existing tariffs remain at 25-35% levels tied to border security and fentanyl flows, with no executive orders or announcements escalating to 100% despite intermittent rhetoric. Deeply integrated supply chains and mutual economic reliance reinforce trader consensus against such disruption. Realistic shifts could arise from verified Canada-China negotiations, diplomatic breakdowns, or heightened migration crises before the deadline.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$43,968समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.Traders' near-unanimous 95.3% implied probability on "No" for a 100% tariff on Canada by June 30 stems from President Trump's January 2026 threat being explicitly conditional on Canada finalizing a trade deal with China—a trigger unmet after Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos remarks prompted swift denials from Ottawa. Amid the ongoing US-Canada trade tensions under USMCA, existing tariffs remain at 25-35% levels tied to border security and fentanyl flows, with no executive orders or announcements escalating to 100% despite intermittent rhetoric. Deeply integrated supply chains and mutual economic reliance reinforce trader consensus against such disruption. Realistic shifts could arise from verified Canada-China negotiations, diplomatic breakdowns, or heightened migration crises before the deadline.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$43,968समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' near-unanimous 95.3% implied probability on "No" for a 100% tariff on Canada by June 30 stems from President Trump's January 2026 threat being explicitly conditional on Canada finalizing a trade deal with China—a trigger unmet after Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos remarks prompted swift denials from Ottawa. Amid the ongoing US-Canada trade tensions under USMCA, existing tariffs remain at 25-35% levels tied to border security and fentanyl flows, with no executive orders or announcements escalating to 100% despite intermittent rhetoric. Deeply integrated supply chains and mutual economic reliance reinforce trader consensus against such disruption. Realistic shifts could arise from verified Canada-China negotiations, diplomatic breakdowns, or heightened migration crises before the deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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