Sudanese Armed Forces broke the Rapid Support Forces' nearly two-year siege of Dilling in South Kordofan in late January 2026, consolidating control of the strategic supply hub despite subsequent RSF drone strikes and artillery barrages that have killed dozens of civilians. SAF repelled a joint RSF-rebel ground assault on March 1, with ongoing shelling reported as recently as March 27 failing to dislodge defenders, while aid convoys entered the city for the first time in over two years on March 24. With just days until the March 31 deadline and no verified RSF advances toward capture amid intensified but stalemated clashes, traders price a 94% implied probability on "No," reflecting the paramilitary group's repeated setbacks and logistical barriers in the Kordofan theater.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
NEW
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Mar 31, 2026
Oui
NEW
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Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Dilling (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Y6TG54DDYXMKvFRaA) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Sudanese Armed Forces broke the Rapid Support Forces' nearly two-year siege of Dilling in South Kordofan in late January 2026, consolidating control of the strategic supply hub despite subsequent RSF drone strikes and artillery barrages that have killed dozens of civilians. SAF repelled a joint RSF-rebel ground assault on March 1, with ongoing shelling reported as recently as March 27 failing to dislodge defenders, while aid convoys entered the city for the first time in over two years on March 24. With just days until the March 31 deadline and no verified RSF advances toward capture amid intensified but stalemated clashes, traders price a 94% implied probability on "No," reflecting the paramilitary group's repeated setbacks and logistical barriers in the Kordofan theater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Dilling (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Y6TG54DDYXMKvFRaA) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Dilling (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Y6TG54DDYXMKvFRaA) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Sudanese Armed Forces broke the Rapid Support Forces' nearly two-year siege of Dilling in South Kordofan in late January 2026, consolidating control of the strategic supply hub despite subsequent RSF drone strikes and artillery barrages that have killed dozens of civilians. SAF repelled a joint RSF-rebel ground assault on March 1, with ongoing shelling reported as recently as March 27 failing to dislodge defenders, while aid convoys entered the city for the first time in over two years on March 24. With just days until the March 31 deadline and no verified RSF advances toward capture amid intensified but stalemated clashes, traders price a 94% implied probability on "No," reflecting the paramilitary group's repeated setbacks and logistical barriers in the Kordofan theater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Dilling (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Y6TG54DDYXMKvFRaA) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sudanese Armed Forces broke the Rapid Support Forces' nearly two-year siege of Dilling in South Kordofan in late January 2026, consolidating control of the strategic supply hub despite subsequent RSF drone strikes and artillery barrages that have killed dozens of civilians. SAF repelled a joint RSF-rebel ground assault on March 1, with ongoing shelling reported as recently as March 27 failing to dislodge defenders, while aid convoys entered the city for the first time in over two years on March 24. With just days until the March 31 deadline and no verified RSF advances toward capture amid intensified but stalemated clashes, traders price a 94% implied probability on "No," reflecting the paramilitary group's repeated setbacks and logistical barriers in the Kordofan theater.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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