Market icon
Tech·Temps D'arrêt

Claude descendra-t-il sur __ jours en mars ?

Market icon
Tech·Temps D'arrêt

Claude descendra-t-il sur __ jours en mars ?

7-8 45%

9-10 38%

11+ 12.3%

5-6 <1%

Polymarket

$19,087 Vol.

7-8 45%

9-10 38%

11+ 12.3%

5-6 <1%

Polymarket

$19,087 Vol.

5-6

$13,568 Vol.

<1%

7-8

$764 Vol.

45%

9-10

$1,176 Vol.

38%

11+

$3,579 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$19,087
Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 83.5% chance of Claude experiencing 7+ days of downtime in March, driven by a cluster of outages in early March—including multi-hour disruptions on March 3, 5, and 9—stemming from scaling issues with Claude 3 Opus and Sonnet models amid surging demand. Anthropic's status page confirms intermittent API and web console failures, eroding reliability against competitors like OpenAI's GPT-4o, which boasts 99.9% uptime via robust Azure infrastructure. Differentiators include Anthropic's constitutional AI safeguards, which introduce latency vulnerabilities during peak loads, versus rivals' optimized inference stacks. With 20 days left, traders watch for capacity upgrades announced post-outages, but historical patterns suggest persistent fragility, tilting odds toward 7-8 days (45.5%) over higher buckets.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Claude descendra-t-il sur __ jours en mars ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 7-8 » à 46%, suivi de « 9-10 » à 38%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 46¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 46% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Claude descendra-t-il sur __ jours en mars ? » a généré $19.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 26, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Claude descendra-t-il sur __ jours en mars ? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Claude descendra-t-il sur __ jours en mars ? » est « 7-8 » à 46%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 46% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 9-10 » à 38%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Claude descendra-t-il sur __ jours en mars ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.