Market icon

Qui sera le premier à quitter le cabinet Trump ?

Market icon

Qui sera le premier à quitter le cabinet Trump ?

Stephen Miran 100.0%

J.D. Vance <1%

Scott Bessent <1%

Pam Bondi <1%

Polymarket

$3,208,268 Vol.

Stephen Miran 100.0%

J.D. Vance <1%

Scott Bessent <1%

Pam Bondi <1%

Polymarket

$3,208,268 Vol.

J.D. Vance

$110,819 Vol.

Non

Scott Bessent

$61,829 Vol.

Non

Pam Bondi

$450,324 Vol.

Non

Brooke Rollins

$45,287 Vol.

Non

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$131,650 Vol.

Non

Scott Turner

$137,970 Vol.

Non

Chris Wright

$49,351 Vol.

Non

Doug Collins

$134,704 Vol.

Non

Lee Zeldin

$85,056 Vol.

Non

Tulsi Gabbard

$82,861 Vol.

Non

John Ratcliffe

$144,150 Vol.

Non

Mike Waltz

$67,347 Vol.

Non

Kelly Loeffler

$77,870 Vol.

Non

Aucun avant 2027

$209,248 Vol.

Non

Marco Rubio

$114,485 Vol.

Non

Pete Hegseth

$156,483 Vol.

Non

Doug Burgum

$145,164 Vol.

Non

Howard Lutnick

$142,348 Vol.

Non

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$55,069 Vol.

Non

Sean Duffy

$101,115 Vol.

Non

Linda McMahon

$52,725 Vol.

Non

Kristi Noem

$299,942 Vol.

Non

Susie Wiles

$66,208 Vol.

Non

Russell T. Vought

$81,913 Vol.

Non

Jamieson Greer

$96,863 Vol.

Non

Stephen Miran

$107,487 Vol.

Oui

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$3,208,268
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qui sera le premier à quitter le cabinet Trump ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 26 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stephen Miran" at 100%, followed by "J.D. Vance" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qui sera le premier à quitter le cabinet Trump ?" has generated $3.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qui sera le premier à quitter le cabinet Trump ?," browse the 26 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qui sera le premier à quitter le cabinet Trump ?" is "Stephen Miran" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qui sera le premier à quitter le cabinet Trump ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.