The November 5, 2024, presidential election remains the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on Polymarket for the first to announce a presidential bid before 2027, as the outcome will anoint party frontrunners like a potential VP successor. Current odds favor no immediate announcements, with implied probabilities highest for figures such as JD Vance or Gavin Newsom based on their visibility in the 2024 cycle, though no formal declarations have occurred amid post-election positioning. Recent VP debate performances and convention speeches have nudged sentiment, but uncertainty persists until inauguration on January 20, 2025, when cabinet picks and state-level maneuvers could accelerate early 2028 contender signals. Traders watch governors' term dynamics and midterm base rates for historical parallels.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourQui annoncera la course à la présidence avant 2027 ?
Qui annoncera la course à la présidence avant 2027 ?
$126,543 Vol.

J.B. Pritzker
35%

Mark Kelly
27%

Rand Paul
17%

J.D. Vance
17%

Brian Kemp
17%

Gavin Newsom
16%

Pete Buttigieg
16%

Kamala Harris
15%

Ted Cruz
15%

Nikki Haley
14%

Donald Trump
14%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14%

Ron DeSantis
14%

Tucker Carlson
13%

Mark Cuban
13%

Jared Polis
13%

Gina Raimondo
13%

John Fetterman
13%

Elise Stefanik
13%

Tulsi Gabbard
12%

Wes Moore
12%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
12%

Steve Bannon
12%

Phil Murphy
11%

Andrew Yang
11%

John Thune
11%

Jon Ossoff
11%

Rahm Emanuel
11%

Vivek Ramaswamy
11%

Katie Britt
10%

Marco Rubio
10%

Marjorie Taylor Greene
10%

Cory Booker
10%

Donald Trump Jr.
9%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
9%

Mike Pence
9%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
9%

Beto O’Rourke
8%

Glenn Youngkin
8%

Liz Cheney
8%

Jon Stewart
8%

George Clooney
8%

Oprah Winfrey
8%

Kristi Noem
8%

Hillary Clinton
8%

Greg Abbott
8%

Andy Beshear
8%

Kim Kardashian
8%

Josh Hawley
7%

Chelsea Clinton
7%

Tom Brady
7%

Bernie Sanders
7%

Stephen A. Smith
7%

Josh Shapiro
7%

Byron Donalds
7%

Raphael Warnock
6%

Roy Cooper
6%

Matt Gaetz
6%

Tim Walz
6%

Elon Musk
6%

Erika Kirk
5%

Hunter Biden
5%

Michelle Obama
4%

Ivanka Trump
4%

Barack Obama
4%

Zohran Mamdani
4%

MrBeast
3%

LeBron James
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
52%

Candace Owens
34%
$126,543 Vol.

J.B. Pritzker
35%

Mark Kelly
27%

Rand Paul
17%

J.D. Vance
17%

Brian Kemp
17%

Gavin Newsom
16%

Pete Buttigieg
16%

Kamala Harris
15%

Ted Cruz
15%

Nikki Haley
14%

Donald Trump
14%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14%

Ron DeSantis
14%

Tucker Carlson
13%

Mark Cuban
13%

Jared Polis
13%

Gina Raimondo
13%

John Fetterman
13%

Elise Stefanik
13%

Tulsi Gabbard
12%

Wes Moore
12%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
12%

Steve Bannon
12%

Phil Murphy
11%

Andrew Yang
11%

John Thune
11%

Jon Ossoff
11%

Rahm Emanuel
11%

Vivek Ramaswamy
11%

Katie Britt
10%

Marco Rubio
10%

Marjorie Taylor Greene
10%

Cory Booker
10%

Donald Trump Jr.
9%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
9%

Mike Pence
9%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
9%

Beto O’Rourke
8%

Glenn Youngkin
8%

Liz Cheney
8%

Jon Stewart
8%

George Clooney
8%

Oprah Winfrey
8%

Kristi Noem
8%

Hillary Clinton
8%

Greg Abbott
8%

Andy Beshear
8%

Kim Kardashian
8%

Josh Hawley
7%

Chelsea Clinton
7%

Tom Brady
7%

Bernie Sanders
7%

Stephen A. Smith
7%

Josh Shapiro
7%

Byron Donalds
7%

Raphael Warnock
6%

Roy Cooper
6%

Matt Gaetz
6%

Tim Walz
6%

Elon Musk
6%

Erika Kirk
5%

Hunter Biden
5%

Michelle Obama
4%

Ivanka Trump
4%

Barack Obama
4%

Zohran Mamdani
4%

MrBeast
3%

LeBron James
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
52%

Candace Owens
34%
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 19, 2025, 6:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...The November 5, 2024, presidential election remains the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on Polymarket for the first to announce a presidential bid before 2027, as the outcome will anoint party frontrunners like a potential VP successor. Current odds favor no immediate announcements, with implied probabilities highest for figures such as JD Vance or Gavin Newsom based on their visibility in the 2024 cycle, though no formal declarations have occurred amid post-election positioning. Recent VP debate performances and convention speeches have nudged sentiment, but uncertainty persists until inauguration on January 20, 2025, when cabinet picks and state-level maneuvers could accelerate early 2028 contender signals. Traders watch governors' term dynamics and midterm base rates for historical parallels.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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