Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between no AI model reaching a 1550 Elo score on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 (42% implied probability) and Anthropic achieving it first (40%), driven by current frontier large language models topping out around 1505 Elo as of late March 2026. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in February, claimed the #1 spot with superior performance in coding, hard prompts, and multi-turn reasoning, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.2, but progress has stalled amid diminishing scaling returns and a persistent 50-point gap over open-source challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5. Key differentiators include Anthropic's safety-focused reasoning innovations and Google's compute scale, though no breakthroughs have closed the gap to 1550 yet. Upcoming catalysts like Claude 5, Gemini 4, or GPT-6 previews could swing odds, with resolution hinging on sustained Elo gains before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 40%
Aucun en 2026 35%
Google 11%
OpenAI 6%
$24,244 Vol.
$24,244 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Anthropic
40%
Aucun en 2026
42%
11%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Alibaba
3%
Mistral
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 40%
Aucun en 2026 35%
Google 11%
OpenAI 6%
$24,244 Vol.
$24,244 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Anthropic
$2,773 Vol.
40%
Aucun en 2026
$4,215 Vol.
42%
$3,898 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$3,840 Vol.
6%
xAI
$3,211 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$1,772 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$1,668 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$1,631 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,236 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between no AI model reaching a 1550 Elo score on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 (42% implied probability) and Anthropic achieving it first (40%), driven by current frontier large language models topping out around 1505 Elo as of late March 2026. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in February, claimed the #1 spot with superior performance in coding, hard prompts, and multi-turn reasoning, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.2, but progress has stalled amid diminishing scaling returns and a persistent 50-point gap over open-source challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5. Key differentiators include Anthropic's safety-focused reasoning innovations and Google's compute scale, though no breakthroughs have closed the gap to 1550 yet. Upcoming catalysts like Claude 5, Gemini 4, or GPT-6 previews could swing odds, with resolution hinging on sustained Elo gains before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$24,244Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between no AI model reaching a 1550 Elo score on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 (42% implied probability) and Anthropic achieving it first (40%), driven by current frontier large language models topping out around 1505 Elo as of late March 2026. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in February, claimed the #1 spot with superior performance in coding, hard prompts, and multi-turn reasoning, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.2, but progress has stalled amid diminishing scaling returns and a persistent 50-point gap over open-source challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5. Key differentiators include Anthropic's safety-focused reasoning innovations and Google's compute scale, though no breakthroughs have closed the gap to 1550 yet. Upcoming catalysts like Claude 5, Gemini 4, or GPT-6 previews could swing odds, with resolution hinging on sustained Elo gains before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$24,244Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between no AI model reaching a 1550 Elo score on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 (42% implied probability) and Anthropic achieving it first (40%), driven by current frontier large language models topping out around 1505 Elo as of late March 2026. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, released in February, claimed the #1 spot with superior performance in coding, hard prompts, and multi-turn reasoning, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.2, but progress has stalled amid diminishing scaling returns and a persistent 50-point gap over open-source challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5. Key differentiators include Anthropic's safety-focused reasoning innovations and Google's compute scale, though no breakthroughs have closed the gap to 1550 yet. Upcoming catalysts like Claude 5, Gemini 4, or GPT-6 previews could swing odds, with resolution hinging on sustained Elo gains before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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