Trader consensus heavily favors Delcy Rodríguez at 60.5% as Venezuela's leader by end-2026, driven by her role as executive vice president and key diplomat under Nicolás Maduro's regime, signaling likely Chavismo succession amid tight government control following the disputed July 2024 presidential election. Maduro's 15.8% reflects potential continuity in his second term through 2031, despite international non-recognition and opposition claims of fraud favoring Edmundo González. María Corina Machado's 13.5% stems from her enduring opposition popularity and primary candidacy, though suppressed protests and arrests limit momentum. Recent catalysts include Maduro's January 2025 inauguration, U.S. sanctions persistence, and minimal diplomatic breakthroughs, underscoring regime resilience over upheaval risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLeader vénézuélien fin 2026 ?
Leader vénézuélien fin 2026 ?
Delcy Rodríguez 61%
Nicolás Maduro 15.8%
María Corina Machado 14%
Edmundo González 1.9%
$74,858,703 Vol.
$74,858,703 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
61%
Nicolás Maduro
16%
María Corina Machado
14%
Edmundo González
2%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Pas de chef d'État
1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 61%
Nicolás Maduro 15.8%
María Corina Machado 14%
Edmundo González 1.9%
$74,858,703 Vol.
$74,858,703 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
61%
Nicolás Maduro
16%
María Corina Machado
14%
Edmundo González
2%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Pas de chef d'État
1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Delcy Rodríguez at 60.5% as Venezuela's leader by end-2026, driven by her role as executive vice president and key diplomat under Nicolás Maduro's regime, signaling likely Chavismo succession amid tight government control following the disputed July 2024 presidential election. Maduro's 15.8% reflects potential continuity in his second term through 2031, despite international non-recognition and opposition claims of fraud favoring Edmundo González. María Corina Machado's 13.5% stems from her enduring opposition popularity and primary candidacy, though suppressed protests and arrests limit momentum. Recent catalysts include Maduro's January 2025 inauguration, U.S. sanctions persistence, and minimal diplomatic breakthroughs, underscoring regime resilience over upheaval risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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