Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31, reflecting the effective rate of approximately 10% established after the U.S. Supreme Court's late February ruling invalidated higher country-specific tariffs imposed under prior authorities. President Trump's subsequent executive action via Section 122 of the Trade Act introduced a universal 10% ad valorem duty on imports, including from China, effective as a 150-day measure running through July and confirmed in recent USTR and USITC data showing a weighted average around 10.3%. This shift from escalated reciprocal tariffs has stabilized trade policy amid ongoing bilateral tensions. Scenarios to challenge this include a last-minute executive order adjustment, congressional intervention, or new diplomatic developments before resolution, though none appear imminent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour10
5–15 % 97.9%
15–25 % 1.9%
<5 % <1%
25–35 % <1%
$1,154,048 Vol.
$1,154,048 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5 %
<1%
5–15 %
98%
15–25 %
2%
25–35 %
<1%
35 %+
<1%
5–15 % 97.9%
15–25 % 1.9%
<5 % <1%
25–35 % <1%
$1,154,048 Vol.
$1,154,048 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5 %
$86,057 Vol.
<1%
5–15 %
$263,107 Vol.
98%
15–25 %
$537,368 Vol.
2%
25–35 %
$146,196 Vol.
<1%
35 %+
$121,320 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31, reflecting the effective rate of approximately 10% established after the U.S. Supreme Court's late February ruling invalidated higher country-specific tariffs imposed under prior authorities. President Trump's subsequent executive action via Section 122 of the Trade Act introduced a universal 10% ad valorem duty on imports, including from China, effective as a 150-day measure running through July and confirmed in recent USTR and USITC data showing a weighted average around 10.3%. This shift from escalated reciprocal tariffs has stabilized trade policy amid ongoing bilateral tensions. Scenarios to challenge this include a last-minute executive order adjustment, congressional intervention, or new diplomatic developments before resolution, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,154,048Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31, reflecting the effective rate of approximately 10% established after the U.S. Supreme Court's late February ruling invalidated higher country-specific tariffs imposed under prior authorities. President Trump's subsequent executive action via Section 122 of the Trade Act introduced a universal 10% ad valorem duty on imports, including from China, effective as a 150-day measure running through July and confirmed in recent USTR and USITC data showing a weighted average around 10.3%. This shift from escalated reciprocal tariffs has stabilized trade policy amid ongoing bilateral tensions. Scenarios to challenge this include a last-minute executive order adjustment, congressional intervention, or new diplomatic developments before resolution, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$1,154,048Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31, reflecting the effective rate of approximately 10% established after the U.S. Supreme Court's late February ruling invalidated higher country-specific tariffs imposed under prior authorities. President Trump's subsequent executive action via Section 122 of the Trade Act introduced a universal 10% ad valorem duty on imports, including from China, effective as a 150-day measure running through July and confirmed in recent USTR and USITC data showing a weighted average around 10.3%. This shift from escalated reciprocal tariffs has stabilized trade policy amid ongoing bilateral tensions. Scenarios to challenge this include a last-minute executive order adjustment, congressional intervention, or new diplomatic developments before resolution, though none appear imminent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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