The entrenched political consensus that a sovereign default would trigger severe economic disruption and market turmoil underpins traders' 98.3% implied probability against a US default by 2027. With the debt limit projected to bind in the second half of 2027, Republican leaders are already weighing a preemptive increase during the current lame-duck session to neutralize leverage for any incoming majority, consistent with repeated bipartisan resolutions in prior cycles. Treasury issuance plans extending into 2027 and reliance on extraordinary measures further reduce near-term risk. A divided Congress after midterms or sustained yield spikes above 5% could test timelines, yet the institutional priority on preserving full faith and credit has historically ensured passage before exhaustion.