Recent legislation, including the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, has extended the Treasury's borrowing authority well into 2027 and delayed the next potential breach. This buffer, combined with the Treasury's routine use of extraordinary measures and Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the limit through appropriations legislation and continuing resolutions ahead of any shortfall, underpins the 95.2% implied probability that no default occurs by 2027. Historical patterns show debt ceiling standoffs resolve without breach, reflecting institutional incentives to protect creditworthiness and payment obligations. Even so, an extended impasse during future limit negotiations around the projected 2027 timeline could introduce volatility if extraordinary measures are exhausted without action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Les États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Oui
$15,053 Vol.
$15,053 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$15,053 Vol.
$15,053 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent legislation, including the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, has extended the Treasury's borrowing authority well into 2027 and delayed the next potential breach. This buffer, combined with the Treasury's routine use of extraordinary measures and Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the limit through appropriations legislation and continuing resolutions ahead of any shortfall, underpins the 95.2% implied probability that no default occurs by 2027. Historical patterns show debt ceiling standoffs resolve without breach, reflecting institutional incentives to protect creditworthiness and payment obligations. Even so, an extended impasse during future limit negotiations around the projected 2027 timeline could introduce volatility if extraordinary measures are exhausted without action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$15,053Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent legislation, including the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, has extended the Treasury's borrowing authority well into 2027 and delayed the next potential breach. This buffer, combined with the Treasury's routine use of extraordinary measures and Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the limit through appropriations legislation and continuing resolutions ahead of any shortfall, underpins the 95.2% implied probability that no default occurs by 2027. Historical patterns show debt ceiling standoffs resolve without breach, reflecting institutional incentives to protect creditworthiness and payment obligations. Even so, an extended impasse during future limit negotiations around the projected 2027 timeline could introduce volatility if extraordinary measures are exhausted without action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$15,053Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent legislation, including the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, has extended the Treasury's borrowing authority well into 2027 and delayed the next potential breach. This buffer, combined with the Treasury's routine use of extraordinary measures and Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the limit through appropriations legislation and continuing resolutions ahead of any shortfall, underpins the 95.2% implied probability that no default occurs by 2027. Historical patterns show debt ceiling standoffs resolve without breach, reflecting institutional incentives to protect creditworthiness and payment obligations. Even so, an extended impasse during future limit negotiations around the projected 2027 timeline could introduce volatility if extraordinary measures are exhausted without action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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