The strong trader consensus against a US debt default by 2027, reflected in 95% odds on "No," stems from the federal government's consistent history of raising the debt ceiling—done 78 times since 1960—to avoid missing payments on Treasury obligations. The current debt limit suspension, enacted via the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act, extends through January 2025, giving Congress time for action amid projected debt-to-GDP ratios climbing toward 116% per CBO forecasts. Recent Treasury statements highlight extraordinary measures to manage cash flows, while bipartisan precedents in past brinkmanship underscore political incentives to avert economic catastrophe, though 2025 negotiations under divided government could introduce short-term volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Les États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Oui
$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$14,255Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$14,255Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus against a US debt default by 2027, reflected in 95% odds on "No," stems from the federal government's consistent history of raising the debt ceiling—done 78 times since 1960—to avoid missing payments on Treasury obligations. The current debt limit suspension, enacted via the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act, extends through January 2025, giving Congress time for action amid projected debt-to-GDP ratios climbing toward 116% per CBO forecasts. Recent Treasury statements highlight extraordinary measures to manage cash flows, while bipartisan precedents in past brinkmanship underscore political incentives to avert economic catastrophe, though 2025 negotiations under divided government could introduce short-term volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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