Traders assign a 98% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of any binding constraint, most recently increasing it by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion in 2025. With total public debt now exceeding $40.3 trillion and projections indicating the limit could be reached in fiscal year 2027, lawmakers retain strong institutional and economic incentives to act, supported by Treasury extraordinary measures that can extend runway by several months. Bipartisan majorities have historically prioritized avoiding disruptions to payments and market confidence over brinkmanship. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unprecedented refusal to legislate despite an X-date, severe political gridlock, or unanticipated fiscal shocks that compress the timeline before resolution.