A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C by mid-September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.6 °C later in the year, serves as the dominant near-term driver lifting global temperatures. This event, already exceeding prior records in several indices, adds roughly 0.1–0.2 °C to planetary averages with a lag that aligns closely with September conditions, building on the long-term anthropogenic trend and positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase. Official outlooks from NOAA and JMA assign high confidence to very strong El Niño persistence through boreal winter, narrowing the plausible range for the monthly anomaly while leaving room for model spread in exact timing and regional amplification. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics against baseline variability when clustering near 1.35–1.44 °C outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSeptembre 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
Septembre 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
1,35–1,39ºC 46%
1,40–1,44ºC 40%
<1,30ºC 26%
1,30–1,34ºC 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 oct. 2026
<1,30ºC
26%
1,30–1,34ºC
13%
1,35–1,39ºC
46%
1,40–1,44ºC
40%
1,45–1,49ºC
9%
>1,49ºC
7%
1,35–1,39ºC 46%
1,40–1,44ºC 40%
<1,30ºC 26%
1,30–1,34ºC 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 oct. 2026
<1,30ºC
$69 Vol.
26%
1,30–1,34ºC
$1,343 Vol.
13%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
46%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
1,45–1,49ºC
$124 Vol.
9%
>1,49ºC
$263 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C by mid-September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.6 °C later in the year, serves as the dominant near-term driver lifting global temperatures. This event, already exceeding prior records in several indices, adds roughly 0.1–0.2 °C to planetary averages with a lag that aligns closely with September conditions, building on the long-term anthropogenic trend and positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase. Official outlooks from NOAA and JMA assign high confidence to very strong El Niño persistence through boreal winter, narrowing the plausible range for the monthly anomaly while leaving room for model spread in exact timing and regional amplification. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics against baseline variability when clustering near 1.35–1.44 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$1,799Date de fin
10 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETSource de résolution
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C by mid-September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.6 °C later in the year, serves as the dominant near-term driver lifting global temperatures. This event, already exceeding prior records in several indices, adds roughly 0.1–0.2 °C to planetary averages with a lag that aligns closely with September conditions, building on the long-term anthropogenic trend and positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase. Official outlooks from NOAA and JMA assign high confidence to very strong El Niño persistence through boreal winter, narrowing the plausible range for the monthly anomaly while leaving room for model spread in exact timing and regional amplification. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics against baseline variability when clustering near 1.35–1.44 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$1,799Date de fin
10 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETSource de résolution
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C by mid-September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.6 °C later in the year, serves as the dominant near-term driver lifting global temperatures. This event, already exceeding prior records in several indices, adds roughly 0.1–0.2 °C to planetary averages with a lag that aligns closely with September conditions, building on the long-term anthropogenic trend and positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase. Official outlooks from NOAA and JMA assign high confidence to very strong El Niño persistence through boreal winter, narrowing the plausible range for the monthly anomaly while leaving room for model spread in exact timing and regional amplification. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics against baseline variability when clustering near 1.35–1.44 °C outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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