Trader consensus favors 5-6 inches of precipitation in Seattle for March at 41.9% implied probability, reflecting La Niña conditions that historically boost Pacific Northwest rainfall through enhanced atmospheric rivers and storm tracks. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks signal above-average precipitation for the region, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF showing wetter anomalies persisting from a soggy winter. Historical March totals average around 3 inches at Seattle-Tacoma Airport, but recent years like 2022's 4.9 inches align with the 4-7 inch cluster (94.4% combined odds), while early spring data releases and model updates could shift probabilities toward extremes if persistent ridging emerges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPrécipitations à Seattle en mars ?
Précipitations à Seattle en mars ?
5-6 po 41.9%
15-18 cm 31.6%
4-5" 20.9%
>8" 5.9%
$100,354 Vol.
$100,354 Vol.
<3"
1%
3-4"
5%
4-5"
21%
5-6 po
42%
15-18 cm
32%
7-8 po
5%
>8"
6%
5-6 po 41.9%
15-18 cm 31.6%
4-5" 20.9%
>8" 5.9%
$100,354 Vol.
$100,354 Vol.
<3"
1%
3-4"
5%
4-5"
21%
5-6 po
42%
15-18 cm
32%
7-8 po
5%
>8"
6%
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 5-6 inches of precipitation in Seattle for March at 41.9% implied probability, reflecting La Niña conditions that historically boost Pacific Northwest rainfall through enhanced atmospheric rivers and storm tracks. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks signal above-average precipitation for the region, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF showing wetter anomalies persisting from a soggy winter. Historical March totals average around 3 inches at Seattle-Tacoma Airport, but recent years like 2022's 4.9 inches align with the 4-7 inch cluster (94.4% combined odds), while early spring data releases and model updates could shift probabilities toward extremes if persistent ridging emerges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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