Trader consensus reflects a 92.2% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not be arrested before 2027, driven by the absence of any formal indictment, arrest warrant, or charges from the Department of Justice despite partisan calls for accountability. Investigations launched in mid-2025 by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Attorney General Pam Bondi into alleged misconduct surrounding the 2016 Russia intelligence assessment—including grand jury reviews—have yielded no public actions against Obama over the past eight months, with no developments in the last 30 days. President Trump's repeated social media demands and shared AI-generated videos in January 2026 amplified rhetoric but lacked legal follow-through. Scenarios like new evidence prompting a special counsel indictment could shift odds, though historical precedents for prosecuting ex-presidents remain rare absent overwhelming proof.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 92.2% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not be arrested before 2027, driven by the absence of any formal indictment, arrest warrant, or charges from the Department of Justice despite partisan calls for accountability. Investigations launched in mid-2025 by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Attorney General Pam Bondi into alleged misconduct surrounding the 2016 Russia intelligence assessment—including grand jury reviews—have yielded no public actions against Obama over the past eight months, with no developments in the last 30 days. President Trump's repeated social media demands and shared AI-generated videos in January 2026 amplified rhetoric but lacked legal follow-through. Scenarios like new evidence prompting a special counsel indictment could shift odds, though historical precedents for prosecuting ex-presidents remain rare absent overwhelming proof.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 92.2% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not be arrested before 2027, driven by the absence of any formal indictment, arrest warrant, or charges from the Department of Justice despite partisan calls for accountability. Investigations launched in mid-2025 by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Attorney General Pam Bondi into alleged misconduct surrounding the 2016 Russia intelligence assessment—including grand jury reviews—have yielded no public actions against Obama over the past eight months, with no developments in the last 30 days. President Trump's repeated social media demands and shared AI-generated videos in January 2026 amplified rhetoric but lacked legal follow-through. Scenarios like new evidence prompting a special counsel indictment could shift odds, though historical precedents for prosecuting ex-presidents remain rare absent overwhelming proof.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 92.2% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not be arrested before 2027, driven by the absence of any formal indictment, arrest warrant, or charges from the Department of Justice despite partisan calls for accountability. Investigations launched in mid-2025 by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Attorney General Pam Bondi into alleged misconduct surrounding the 2016 Russia intelligence assessment—including grand jury reviews—have yielded no public actions against Obama over the past eight months, with no developments in the last 30 days. President Trump's repeated social media demands and shared AI-generated videos in January 2026 amplified rhetoric but lacked legal follow-through. Scenarios like new evidence prompting a special counsel indictment could shift odds, though historical precedents for prosecuting ex-presidents remain rare absent overwhelming proof.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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