Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire

Oui

>99% chance
Polymarket

$635,329 Vol.

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize
- Ukraine election called
- US-Russia nuclear deal
- Mass Gaza population relocation
- Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war2.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war3.png
Volume
$635,329
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Créé le
Sep 10, 2025, 8:11 PM ET
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Nuclear weapon detonated - Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize - Ukraine election called - US-Russia nuclear deal - Mass Gaza population relocation - Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war2.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war3.png

Résultat proposé: Oui

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire" has generated $635.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire" is "Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire

Oui

>99% chance
Polymarket

$635,329 Vol.

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize
- Ukraine election called
- US-Russia nuclear deal
- Mass Gaza population relocation
- Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war2.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war3.png
Volume
$635,329
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Créé le
Sep 10, 2025, 8:11 PM ET
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Nuclear weapon detonated - Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize - Ukraine election called - US-Russia nuclear deal - Mass Gaza population relocation - Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war2.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war3.png

Résultat proposé: Oui

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire" has generated $635.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire" is "Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rien ne se passe jamais : édition militaire" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.