Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea persist amid Iran-backed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, but Iran has not conducted direct naval targeting since seizing the MSC Aries container ship in April 2024. Following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—Iran downplayed damage and avoided escalation, emphasizing restraint while proxies like Yemen's Houthis launched drone strikes on vessels last week. Diplomatic pushes for a Gaza ceasefire and US naval patrols have deterred overt Iranian action, though IRGC threats of Hormuz closure loom if provoked. Traders watch for US election outcomes, potential Houthi-US clashes, or Israel-Iran escalation, which could shift dynamics before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
13%
April 2
11%
April 3
14%
April 4
13%
April 5
14%
April 6
13%
April 7
15%
April 8
15%
April 9
16%
April 10
20%
$284 Vol.
April 1
$26 Vol.
13%
April 2
$28 Vol.
11%
April 3
$76 Vol.
14%
April 4
$11 Vol.
13%
April 5
$26 Vol.
14%
April 6
$80 Vol.
13%
April 7
$0 Vol.
15%
April 8
$0 Vol.
15%
April 9
$11 Vol.
16%
April 10
$26 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea persist amid Iran-backed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, but Iran has not conducted direct naval targeting since seizing the MSC Aries container ship in April 2024. Following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—Iran downplayed damage and avoided escalation, emphasizing restraint while proxies like Yemen's Houthis launched drone strikes on vessels last week. Diplomatic pushes for a Gaza ceasefire and US naval patrols have deterred overt Iranian action, though IRGC threats of Hormuz closure loom if provoked. Traders watch for US election outcomes, potential Houthi-US clashes, or Israel-Iran escalation, which could shift dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$284Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea persist amid Iran-backed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, but Iran has not conducted direct naval targeting since seizing the MSC Aries container ship in April 2024. Following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—Iran downplayed damage and avoided escalation, emphasizing restraint while proxies like Yemen's Houthis launched drone strikes on vessels last week. Diplomatic pushes for a Gaza ceasefire and US naval patrols have deterred overt Iranian action, though IRGC threats of Hormuz closure loom if provoked. Traders watch for US election outcomes, potential Houthi-US clashes, or Israel-Iran escalation, which could shift dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$284Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea persist amid Iran-backed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, but Iran has not conducted direct naval targeting since seizing the MSC Aries container ship in April 2024. Following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—Iran downplayed damage and avoided escalation, emphasizing restraint while proxies like Yemen's Houthis launched drone strikes on vessels last week. Diplomatic pushes for a Gaza ceasefire and US naval patrols have deterred overt Iranian action, though IRGC threats of Hormuz closure loom if provoked. Traders watch for US election outcomes, potential Houthi-US clashes, or Israel-Iran escalation, which could shift dynamics before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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