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Géopolitique·Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Market icon
Géopolitique·Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

15-19 58.9%

20-24 36.7%

25-29 3.8%

10-14 <1%

Polymarket

$386,475 Vol.

15-19 58.9%

20-24 36.7%

25-29 3.8%

10-14 <1%

Polymarket

$386,475 Vol.

<10

$52,330 Vol.

<1%

10-14

$35,715 Vol.

1%

15-19

$37,682 Vol.

59%

20-24

$35,943 Vol.

37%

25-29

$24,197 Vol.

4%

30-34

$21,953 Vol.

1%

35-39

$32,445 Vol.

<1%

40-44

$47,987 Vol.

1%

45+

$98,221 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 58.9%, reflecting sustained low volumes amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions from the early March Iran conflict, which imposed a de facto blockade and slashed daily traffic from a normal 100+ commercial vessels to single digits. Maritime trackers like IMF Portwatch, which will resolve the market, reported just 144 total transits from March 1-23—an average under seven per day—with recent days like March 25-26 seeing only seven vessels, reinforcing expectations of subdued activity that week despite minor upticks. The 20-24 outcome at 36.7% accounts for potential slight increases, while higher bins remain improbable given persistent shipping risks and backlogs exceeding 400 vessels.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 58.9%, reflecting sustained low volumes amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions from the early March Iran conflict, which imposed a de facto blockade and slashed daily traffic from a normal 100+ commercial vessels to single digits. Maritime trackers like IMF Portwatch, which will resolve the market, reported just 144 total transits from March 1-23—an average under seven per day—with recent days like March 25-26 seeing only seven vessels, reinforcing expectations of subdued activity that week despite minor upticks. The 20-24 outcome at 36.7% accounts for potential slight increases, while higher bins remain improbable given persistent shipping risks and backlogs exceeding 400 vessels.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 58.9%, reflecting sustained low volumes amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions from the early March Iran conflict, which imposed a de facto blockade and slashed daily traffic from a normal 100+ commercial vessels to single digits. Maritime trackers like IMF Portwatch, which will resolve the market, reported just 144 total transits from March 1-23—an average under seven per day—with recent days like March 25-26 seeing only seven vessels, reinforcing expectations of subdued activity that week despite minor upticks. The 20-24 outcome at 36.7% accounts for potential slight increases, while higher bins remain improbable given persistent shipping risks and backlogs exceeding 400 vessels.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 58.9%, reflecting sustained low volumes amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions from the early March Iran conflict, which imposed a de facto blockade and slashed daily traffic from a normal 100+ commercial vessels to single digits. Maritime trackers like IMF Portwatch, which will resolve the market, reported just 144 total transits from March 1-23—an average under seven per day—with recent days like March 25-26 seeing only seven vessels, reinforcing expectations of subdued activity that week despite minor upticks. The 20-24 outcome at 36.7% accounts for potential slight increases, while higher bins remain improbable given persistent shipping risks and backlogs exceeding 400 vessels.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23) » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 15-19 » à 59%, suivi de « 20-24 » à 37%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 59¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 59% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23) » a généré $386.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 17, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23) », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23) » est « 15-19 » à 59%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 59% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 20-24 » à 37%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23) » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.