Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data from Taipei Songshan Airport station confirming a peak of 32°C amid clear skies and a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which projected daytime maxima of 31–32°C under low humidity (around 60–70%) and minimal cloud cover, enabling efficient solar heating typical of mid-April warm spells—above the monthly average high of 27°C. Realistic challenges, such as an unforecast late-afternoon surge from urban heat island effects, are improbable given rapid evening cooling and no convective activity; final CWA daily summary expected shortly will likely affirm resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Taipei on April 15?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 15?
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$131,925 Vol.
$131,925 Vol.
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$131,925 Vol.
$131,925 Vol.
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data from Taipei Songshan Airport station confirming a peak of 32°C amid clear skies and a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which projected daytime maxima of 31–32°C under low humidity (around 60–70%) and minimal cloud cover, enabling efficient solar heating typical of mid-April warm spells—above the monthly average high of 27°C. Realistic challenges, such as an unforecast late-afternoon surge from urban heat island effects, are improbable given rapid evening cooling and no convective activity; final CWA daily summary expected shortly will likely affirm resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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