Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Sao Paulo le 14 avril ?
La température la plus élevée à Sao Paulo le 14 avril ?
25°C 100.0%
21°C ou moins <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$81,236 Vol.
$81,236 Vol.
14 avr. 2026
21°C ou moins
Non
22°C
Non
23°C
Non
24°C
Non
25°C
Oui
26°C
Non
27°C
Non
28°C
Non
29°C
Non
30°C
Non
31°C ou plus
Non
25°C 100.0%
21°C ou moins <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$81,236 Vol.
$81,236 Vol.
14 avr. 2026
21°C ou moins
$5,809 Vol.
Non
22°C
$4,363 Vol.
Non
23°C
$1,425 Vol.
Non
24°C
$5,369 Vol.
Non
25°C
$29,572 Vol.
Oui
26°C
$12,621 Vol.
Non
27°C
$7,052 Vol.
Non
28°C
$7,206 Vol.
Non
29°C
$3,021 Vol.
Non
30°C
$1,913 Vol.
Non
31°C ou plus
$2,886 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$81,236Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$81,236Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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