Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?

Market icon

Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?

0% chance
Polymarket

$731,345 Vol.

0% chance
Polymarket

$731,345 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip for any length of time between December 26, 2023, and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM GMT+2. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with majority of control of the Gaza Strip will be considered the primary governing authority.

If at any point within the time window of this market Hamas is not recognized as the primary governing authority of the Gaza Strip, this market may immediately resolve to "Yes".

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume
$731,345
Date de fin
Jan 31, 2024
Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2023, 11:37 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip for any length of time between December 26, 2023, and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM GMT+2. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with majority of control of the Gaza Strip will be considered the primary governing authority. If at any point within the time window of this market Hamas is not recognized as the primary governing authority of the Gaza Strip, this market may immediately resolve to "Yes". This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: Yes

Contesté

Résultat proposé: Yes

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip for any length of time between December 26, 2023, and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM GMT+2. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with majority of control of the Gaza Strip will be considered the primary governing authority.

If at any point within the time window of this market Hamas is not recognized as the primary governing authority of the Gaza Strip, this market may immediately resolve to "Yes".

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume
$731,345
Date de fin
Jan 31, 2024
Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2023, 11:37 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip for any length of time between December 26, 2023, and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM GMT+2. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with majority of control of the Gaza Strip will be considered the primary governing authority. If at any point within the time window of this market Hamas is not recognized as the primary governing authority of the Gaza Strip, this market may immediately resolve to "Yes". This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: Yes

Contesté

Résultat proposé: Yes

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?" has generated $731.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 29, 2023. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.