France holds a commanding 68.5% implied probability as Group I winner, driven by their elite squad depth featuring Kylian Mbappé's goal-scoring prowess—despite a recent knee concern sidelining him from the March friendly against Senegal—alongside Ousmane Dembélé's flair and midfield dominance from players like Tchouaméni, underscoring their World Cup pedigree as runners-up in 2022. Norway's 23% reflects Erling Haaland's blistering club form and Martin Ødegaard's playmaking in a debut tournament push, positioning them as credible challengers. Senegal lingers at 8.5% amid a talented core led by Sadio Mané but hampered by an injury crisis hitting key attackers like El Hadji Malick Diouf ahead of qualifiers. The Path 2 intercontinental playoff winner—emerging from Bolivia-Suriname and Iraq semis on March 27, with finals March 31—carries just 1.1% as a minnow against this trio.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourFrance 69%
Norvège 23%
Sénégal 9%
BOL/IRQ/SUR 1.2%
$29,319 Vol.
$29,319 Vol.
France
69%
Norvège
23%
Sénégal
9%
BOL/IRQ/SUR
1%
France 69%
Norvège 23%
Sénégal 9%
BOL/IRQ/SUR 1.2%
$29,319 Vol.
$29,319 Vol.
France
69%
Norvège
23%
Sénégal
9%
BOL/IRQ/SUR
1%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France holds a commanding 68.5% implied probability as Group I winner, driven by their elite squad depth featuring Kylian Mbappé's goal-scoring prowess—despite a recent knee concern sidelining him from the March friendly against Senegal—alongside Ousmane Dembélé's flair and midfield dominance from players like Tchouaméni, underscoring their World Cup pedigree as runners-up in 2022. Norway's 23% reflects Erling Haaland's blistering club form and Martin Ødegaard's playmaking in a debut tournament push, positioning them as credible challengers. Senegal lingers at 8.5% amid a talented core led by Sadio Mané but hampered by an injury crisis hitting key attackers like El Hadji Malick Diouf ahead of qualifiers. The Path 2 intercontinental playoff winner—emerging from Bolivia-Suriname and Iraq semis on March 27, with finals March 31—carries just 1.1% as a minnow against this trio.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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