Polymarket traders have assigned a 100% implied probability to Japan's February unemployment rate resolving at 2.6%, reflecting the official Statistics Bureau release on March 30 confirming this seasonally adjusted figure—easing from January's 1.5-year high of 2.7% and undershooting consensus economist forecasts of 2.7%. This first decline in seven months underscores persistent labor market tightness, with jobless levels remaining among the G7's lowest amid steady payrolls and robust demand. Supporting the strong positioning are stable household consumption and wage growth signals tracked by the Bank of Japan, which held policy rates at 0.75% last week. Realistic challenges are minimal, limited to rare data revisions, as the preliminary print typically finalizes without adjustment. Traders now eye April's March report for BOJ policy cues.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour2.6% 100.0%
≤2.4% <1%
2.5% <1%
2.7% <1%
$44,071 Vol.
$44,071 Vol.
≤2.4%
No
2.5%
No
2.6%
Yes
2.7%
No
2.8%
No
2.9%
No
≥3.0%
No
2.6% 100.0%
≤2.4% <1%
2.5% <1%
2.7% <1%
$44,071 Vol.
$44,071 Vol.
≤2.4%
No
2.5%
No
2.6%
Yes
2.7%
No
2.8%
No
2.9%
No
≥3.0%
No
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Polymarket traders have assigned a 100% implied probability to Japan's February unemployment rate resolving at 2.6%, reflecting the official Statistics Bureau release on March 30 confirming this seasonally adjusted figure—easing from January's 1.5-year high of 2.7% and undershooting consensus economist forecasts of 2.7%. This first decline in seven months underscores persistent labor market tightness, with jobless levels remaining among the G7's lowest amid steady payrolls and robust demand. Supporting the strong positioning are stable household consumption and wage growth signals tracked by the Bank of Japan, which held policy rates at 0.75% last week. Realistic challenges are minimal, limited to rare data revisions, as the preliminary print typically finalizes without adjustment. Traders now eye April's March report for BOJ policy cues.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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