Geopolitical supply disruptions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and production shut-ins totaling over 10 million barrels per day across key OPEC nations, represent the dominant driver elevating trader consensus for Crude Oil (CL) June settlement above $84. These developments have triggered sharp inventory draws, with the EIA forecasting an 8.5 million b/d global stock decline in Q2 2026 that supports Brent prices near $106 through June. Recent futures data show June 2026 WTI contracts trading above $105 amid heightened volatility, reinforcing the 72% market-implied odds for the top outcome while the lower buckets reflect expectations of eventual supply recovery later in the year. Ongoing conflict resolution timelines introduce the primary uncertainty for near-term pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÀ quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
>84 $ 73%
77 $–84 $ 18%
70 $ - 77 $ 8.1%
63 $-70 $ 2.4%
$169,780 Vol.
$169,780 Vol.
<42 $
1%
42 $-49 $
1%
49 $–56 $
1%
56 $-63 $
1%
63 $-70 $
2%
70 $ - 77 $
8%
77 $–84 $
18%
>84 $
73%
>84 $ 73%
77 $–84 $ 18%
70 $ - 77 $ 8.1%
63 $-70 $ 2.4%
$169,780 Vol.
$169,780 Vol.
<42 $
1%
42 $-49 $
1%
49 $–56 $
1%
56 $-63 $
1%
63 $-70 $
2%
70 $ - 77 $
8%
77 $–84 $
18%
>84 $
73%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply disruptions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and production shut-ins totaling over 10 million barrels per day across key OPEC nations, represent the dominant driver elevating trader consensus for Crude Oil (CL) June settlement above $84. These developments have triggered sharp inventory draws, with the EIA forecasting an 8.5 million b/d global stock decline in Q2 2026 that supports Brent prices near $106 through June. Recent futures data show June 2026 WTI contracts trading above $105 amid heightened volatility, reinforcing the 72% market-implied odds for the top outcome while the lower buckets reflect expectations of eventual supply recovery later in the year. Ongoing conflict resolution timelines introduce the primary uncertainty for near-term pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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