Geopolitical supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid Middle East conflict have driven WTI crude prices to approximately $97 per barrel in late May 2026, with the EIA projecting an 8.5 million barrel-per-day global inventory draw in the second quarter that supports levels near $106 through June. This has positioned the >$84 bucket as the clear leader in trader consensus at 68% implied probability, reflecting real-capital positioning around persistent tightness from shut-in production exceeding 10 million barrels per day. Market-implied odds on lower ranges remain compressed as participants monitor potential gradual Hormuz traffic resumption and OPEC+ quota adjustments as key near-term swing factors before June contract expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÀ quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
>84 $ 68%
77 $–84 $ 16%
70 $ - 77 $ 5.8%
63 $-70 $ 1.0%
$194,165 Vol.
$194,165 Vol.
<42 $
<1%
42 $-49 $
<1%
49 $–56 $
1%
56 $-63 $
1%
63 $-70 $
1%
70 $ - 77 $
6%
77 $–84 $
16%
>84 $
68%
>84 $ 68%
77 $–84 $ 16%
70 $ - 77 $ 5.8%
63 $-70 $ 1.0%
$194,165 Vol.
$194,165 Vol.
<42 $
<1%
42 $-49 $
<1%
49 $–56 $
1%
56 $-63 $
1%
63 $-70 $
1%
70 $ - 77 $
6%
77 $–84 $
16%
>84 $
68%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid Middle East conflict have driven WTI crude prices to approximately $97 per barrel in late May 2026, with the EIA projecting an 8.5 million barrel-per-day global inventory draw in the second quarter that supports levels near $106 through June. This has positioned the >$84 bucket as the clear leader in trader consensus at 68% implied probability, reflecting real-capital positioning around persistent tightness from shut-in production exceeding 10 million barrels per day. Market-implied odds on lower ranges remain compressed as participants monitor potential gradual Hormuz traffic resumption and OPEC+ quota adjustments as key near-term swing factors before June contract expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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