Spain commands trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy, propelled by their Euro 2024 victory, world number one ranking, and 18-month unbeaten streak featuring dynamic play from Lamine Yamal and Pedri under Luis de la Fuente. England (12.7%), France (11.8%), defending champions Argentina (9.7%), and Brazil (8.6%) cluster closely behind, reflecting a hyper-competitive 48-team expanded field where UEFA and CONMEBOL powerhouses all clinched direct qualification ahead of March 26-31 intercontinental playoffs that finalized minor entrants without disrupting elites. Protective draw seeding shields top pots until semifinals, amplifying knockout volatility amid peaking golden generations, injury uncertainties, and host advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.7%
France 11.8%
Argentine 9.7%
$437,496,540 Vol.
$437,496,540 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
12%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
3%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.7%
France 11.8%
Argentine 9.7%
$437,496,540 Vol.
$437,496,540 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
12%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
3%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain commands trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy, propelled by their Euro 2024 victory, world number one ranking, and 18-month unbeaten streak featuring dynamic play from Lamine Yamal and Pedri under Luis de la Fuente. England (12.7%), France (11.8%), defending champions Argentina (9.7%), and Brazil (8.6%) cluster closely behind, reflecting a hyper-competitive 48-team expanded field where UEFA and CONMEBOL powerhouses all clinched direct qualification ahead of March 26-31 intercontinental playoffs that finalized minor entrants without disrupting elites. Protective draw seeding shields top pots until semifinals, amplifying knockout volatility amid peaking golden generations, injury uncertainties, and host advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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