Spain's flawless UEFA qualifying campaign—five wins and one draw in Group E with a +19 goal difference—alongside their Euro 2024 triumph and Lamine Yamal's breakout form, drives trader consensus favoring them at 16% implied probability, edging out rivals in power rankings. The bunched top probabilities reflect equally dominant paths: England's perfect eight wins in Group K, France's unbeaten Group D run capped by a recent friendly victory over Brazil, Argentina's CONMEBOL table-topping 38 points as defending champions, and Brazil's fifth-place finish despite inconsistencies. With the group draw separating powerhouses into different halves, deep squads, knockout pedigree, and the expanded 48-team format heighten upset potential, keeping the win market competitively tight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.7%
France 11.9%
Argentine 9.7%
$439,320,433 Vol.
$439,320,433 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
12%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
3%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.7%
France 11.9%
Argentine 9.7%
$439,320,433 Vol.
$439,320,433 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
12%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
3%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain's flawless UEFA qualifying campaign—five wins and one draw in Group E with a +19 goal difference—alongside their Euro 2024 triumph and Lamine Yamal's breakout form, drives trader consensus favoring them at 16% implied probability, edging out rivals in power rankings. The bunched top probabilities reflect equally dominant paths: England's perfect eight wins in Group K, France's unbeaten Group D run capped by a recent friendly victory over Brazil, Argentina's CONMEBOL table-topping 38 points as defending champions, and Brazil's fifth-place finish despite inconsistencies. With the group draw separating powerhouses into different halves, deep squads, knockout pedigree, and the expanded 48-team format heighten upset potential, keeping the win market competitively tight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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