With the full 48-team field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup now set after UEFA playoffs concluded on March 31—adding teams like Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Sweden, and Turkiye—trader consensus crowns Spain as narrow leader at 16% implied probability, driven by their flawless European qualification run, Euro 2024 dominance, and sustained form from young talents like Lamine Yamal in March friendlies. France (13%) gained ground with convincing wins over Brazil and Colombia last week, underscoring their depth around Mbappé, while England (12%) drifted after a shock defeat to Japan. Argentina (9%) and Brazil (9%) trail closely as Copa América powers, but the bunched top reflects the expanded format's upset potential, balanced group draws, and three months for club-season injuries or momentum shifts before the North American-hosted tournament.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.9%
France 13.3%
Angleterre 11.8%
Argentine 9.2%
$480,338,256 Vol.
$480,338,256 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Espagne 15.9%
France 13.3%
Angleterre 11.8%
Argentine 9.2%
$480,338,256 Vol.
$480,338,256 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the full 48-team field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup now set after UEFA playoffs concluded on March 31—adding teams like Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Sweden, and Turkiye—trader consensus crowns Spain as narrow leader at 16% implied probability, driven by their flawless European qualification run, Euro 2024 dominance, and sustained form from young talents like Lamine Yamal in March friendlies. France (13%) gained ground with convincing wins over Brazil and Colombia last week, underscoring their depth around Mbappé, while England (12%) drifted after a shock defeat to Japan. Argentina (9%) and Brazil (9%) trail closely as Copa América powers, but the bunched top reflects the expanded format's upset potential, balanced group draws, and three months for club-season injuries or momentum shifts before the North American-hosted tournament.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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