Arsenal's 55% implied probability as away favorites in the UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg stems from Sporting CP's critical absences: captain Morten Hjulmand (suspended after yellow cards) and winger Nuno Santos (thigh injury, out three weeks), eroding midfield control and left-flank width against Mikel Arteta's high-pressing system. Recent confirmation of these blows within 24 hours has boosted trader consensus toward Arsenal's superior recent form (87% win rate vs. Sporting's 60%) and defensive solidity. Sporting's home advantage at Estádio José Alvalade supports their 21% upset chance and 25% draw pricing, reflecting a potentially compact setup in this two-legged tie, with both players possibly returning for the Emirates second leg.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

If Sporting CP wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.uefa.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...

If Sporting CP wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.uefa.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Arsenal's 55% implied probability as away favorites in the UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg stems from Sporting CP's critical absences: captain Morten Hjulmand (suspended after yellow cards) and winger Nuno Santos (thigh injury, out three weeks), eroding midfield control and left-flank width against Mikel Arteta's high-pressing system. Recent confirmation of these blows within 24 hours has boosted trader consensus toward Arsenal's superior recent form (87% win rate vs. Sporting's 60%) and defensive solidity. Sporting's home advantage at Estádio José Alvalade supports their 21% upset chance and 25% draw pricing, reflecting a potentially compact setup in this two-legged tie, with both players possibly returning for the Emirates second leg.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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