Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, flawless UEFA qualifying campaign, and favorable group draw that delays clashes with rivals like Argentina, France, and England until semifinals or later. Recent March friendlies among qualified nations and playoff resolutions—such as Bolivia's 2-1 win over Suriname—yielded no major shocks, preserving a tightly bunched top tier where England (13%), France (11%), and Argentina (10%) trail closely amid balanced CONMEBOL and UEFA paths. The expanded 48-team format amplifies upset potential from dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Colombia, while defending Copa América champions Argentina eye a Messi farewell run despite his advancing age.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentine 9.8%
$425,404,901 Vol.
$425,404,901 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Australie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentine 9.8%
$425,404,901 Vol.
$425,404,901 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Australie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, flawless UEFA qualifying campaign, and favorable group draw that delays clashes with rivals like Argentina, France, and England until semifinals or later. Recent March friendlies among qualified nations and playoff resolutions—such as Bolivia's 2-1 win over Suriname—yielded no major shocks, preserving a tightly bunched top tier where England (13%), France (11%), and Argentina (10%) trail closely amid balanced CONMEBOL and UEFA paths. The expanded 48-team format amplifies upset potential from dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Colombia, while defending Copa América champions Argentina eye a Messi farewell run despite his advancing age.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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