Next Country US Strikes
$1,466,494 Vol.
Syria 99.7%
Iran <1%
Somalia <1%
Yemen <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Syria
$234,420 Vol.
100%
Syria
$234,420 Vol.
100%
Iran
$188,428 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$188,428 Vol.
<1%
Somalia
$203,304 Vol.
<1%
Somalia
$203,304 Vol.
<1%
Yemen
$81,367 Vol.
<1%
Yemen
$81,367 Vol.
<1%
Venezuela
$72,829 Vol.
<1%
Venezuela
$72,829 Vol.
<1%
Iraq
$76,352 Vol.
<1%
Iraq
$76,352 Vol.
<1%
Nigeria
$59,244 Vol.
<1%
Nigeria
$59,244 Vol.
<1%
Other
$77,290 Vol.
<1%
Other
$77,290 Vol.
<1%
Cuba
$103,986 Vol.
<1%
Cuba
$103,986 Vol.
<1%
None before 2027
$240,707 Vol.
<1%
None before 2027
$240,707 Vol.
<1%
Mexico
$82,403 Vol.
<1%
Mexico
$82,403 Vol.
<1%
Colombia
$73,703 Vol.
<1%
Colombia
$73,703 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 9, 2026, 7:10 PM UTC
Volume
$1,466,494End Date
Dec 31, 2026Created At
Jan 9, 2026, 7:10 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$1,466,494 Vol.
Next Country US Strikes
Syria 99.7%
Iran <1%
Somalia <1%
Yemen <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Syria
$234,420 Vol.
100%
Iran
$188,428 Vol.
<1%
Somalia
$203,304 Vol.
<1%
Yemen
$81,367 Vol.
<1%
Venezuela
$72,829 Vol.
<1%
Iraq
$76,352 Vol.
<1%
Nigeria
$59,244 Vol.
<1%
Other
$77,290 Vol.
<1%
Cuba
$103,986 Vol.
<1%
None before 2027
$240,707 Vol.
<1%
Mexico
$82,403 Vol.
<1%
Colombia
$73,703 Vol.
<1%
About
Volume
$1,466,494End Date
Dec 31, 2026Created At
Jan 9, 2026, 7:10 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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