Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson holds a commanding position in Idaho’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s strong Republican lean, combined with Simpson’s long incumbency since 1999 and decisive May primary victory, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Simpson maintains a substantial fundraising edge and faces Democrat Ellie Gilbreath, who won her primary but operates with far less campaign resources in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome, though the structural advantages of incumbency and district composition make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
$34,627 Vol.
$34,627 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Simpson (R)
95%
Ellie Gilbreath (D)
6%
$34,627 Vol.
$34,627 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Simpson (R)
$14,251 Vol.
95%
Ellie Gilbreath (D)
$20,376 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson holds a commanding position in Idaho’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s strong Republican lean, combined with Simpson’s long incumbency since 1999 and decisive May primary victory, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Simpson maintains a substantial fundraising edge and faces Democrat Ellie Gilbreath, who won her primary but operates with far less campaign resources in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome, though the structural advantages of incumbency and district composition make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$34,627End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson holds a commanding position in Idaho’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s strong Republican lean, combined with Simpson’s long incumbency since 1999 and decisive May primary victory, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Simpson maintains a substantial fundraising edge and faces Democrat Ellie Gilbreath, who won her primary but operates with far less campaign resources in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome, though the structural advantages of incumbency and district composition make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,627End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson holds a commanding position in Idaho’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s strong Republican lean, combined with Simpson’s long incumbency since 1999 and decisive May primary victory, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Simpson maintains a substantial fundraising edge and faces Democrat Ellie Gilbreath, who won her primary but operates with far less campaign resources in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could still alter the outcome, though the structural advantages of incumbency and district composition make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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