The ECB’s June 2026 policy decision is overwhelmingly priced for a 25-basis-point deposit facility rate hike to 2.25 percent, reflecting market-implied odds near 99 percent. Persistent upside risks to inflation from energy-price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have shifted the Governing Council’s stance since the April 30 hold at 2.00 percent, with recent Reuters and Bloomberg economist surveys showing more than 90 percent now expecting the June 11 move. Stronger short-term inflation expectations and resilient labor-market data have reinforced the case for modest tightening to limit second-round effects. A clear softening in June inflation prints or a sharp de-escalation in energy markets could still prompt a last-minute reassessment, though such outcomes appear low-probability given the current data trajectory.