Trader consensus on a near-certain "No" outcome for a U.S. debt default by 2027 stems from the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion, providing ample headroom well into 2027 according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the limit over decades to meet existing obligations, including interest payments, Social Security, and defense spending, while Treasury extraordinary measures have bridged short-term gaps without incident. Bipartisan incentives to prevent economic disruption, higher borrowing costs, and market instability reinforce this pattern, with historical precedent showing resolution even amid polarized negotiations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unprecedented extended impasse in late 2027 if reconciliation or appropriations processes stall, though primary obligations on Treasury securities have always received priority in past standoffs.