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icon for ¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?

¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?

icon for ¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?

¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

Sí

5% probabilidad
Polymarket

$15,053 Vol.

Sí

5% probabilidad
Polymarket

$15,053 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that Congressional Budget Office projections indicate will cover borrowing needs well into 2027 absent sharp deficit acceleration. Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no default by the end of 2027, reflecting the consistent congressional record of more than 100 limit adjustments or suspensions since World War II to protect Treasury market stability, entitlement payments, and investor confidence. Both parties have demonstrated institutional incentives to resolve debt-ceiling issues before extraordinary measures expire. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen fiscal shocks, rapid spending growth, or prolonged legislative gridlock that compresses the timeline for the next required action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$15,053
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that Congressional Budget Office projections indicate will cover borrowing needs well into 2027 absent sharp deficit acceleration. Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no default by the end of 2027, reflecting the consistent congressional record of more than 100 limit adjustments or suspensions since World War II to protect Treasury market stability, entitlement payments, and investor confidence. Both parties have demonstrated institutional incentives to resolve debt-ceiling issues before extraordinary measures expire. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen fiscal shocks, rapid spending growth, or prolonged legislative gridlock that compresses the timeline for the next required action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$15,053
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Estados Unidos incumple su deuda para 2027?" con 5%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 5¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 5% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?" ha generado $15.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?" es "¿Estados Unidos incumple su deuda para 2027?" con solo 5%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.