Traders assign a 98% probability to no U.S. default on debt obligations by the end of 2026 due to the $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025, which lifted the statutory cap to $41.1 trillion. Federal debt has reached approximately $40 trillion, yet Congressional Budget Office and outside projections place the point at which borrowing authority would bind in early-to-mid 2027, with Treasury extraordinary measures extending that timeline further. Lawmakers from both parties have signaled intent to address the ceiling via reconciliation or lame-duck legislation after the 2026 midterms, consistent with repeated historical patterns of raising or suspending the limit before any payment disruption occurs. While a post-election standoff could introduce volatility or delay, the structural buffer and institutional incentives make an actual missed Treasury payment by year-end highly improbable.