Trader consensus on the Services Down Parlay market has solidified at 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the March 31, 2026, resolution window closing without critical red-level incidents at Discord or Cloudflare, as verified on their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although Amazon Web Services recorded a qualifying "disrupted" severity event in early March—stemming from drone strikes on its me-central-1 region affecting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the absence of simultaneous failures across all three cloud platforms sealed the parlay's failure. This reflects the rarity of correlated outages in diversified infrastructure ecosystems. Realistic risks to resolution include late severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though status page histories show no basis for upgrades; the market awaits final confirmation amid stable operations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$14,115 Vol.
$14,115 Vol.
31 mar 2026
Sí
$14,115 Vol.
$14,115 Vol.
31 mar 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on the Services Down Parlay market has solidified at 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the March 31, 2026, resolution window closing without critical red-level incidents at Discord or Cloudflare, as verified on their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although Amazon Web Services recorded a qualifying "disrupted" severity event in early March—stemming from drone strikes on its me-central-1 region affecting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the absence of simultaneous failures across all three cloud platforms sealed the parlay's failure. This reflects the rarity of correlated outages in diversified infrastructure ecosystems. Realistic risks to resolution include late severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though status page histories show no basis for upgrades; the market awaits final confirmation amid stable operations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volumen
$14,115Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on the Services Down Parlay market has solidified at 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the March 31, 2026, resolution window closing without critical red-level incidents at Discord or Cloudflare, as verified on their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although Amazon Web Services recorded a qualifying "disrupted" severity event in early March—stemming from drone strikes on its me-central-1 region affecting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the absence of simultaneous failures across all three cloud platforms sealed the parlay's failure. This reflects the rarity of correlated outages in diversified infrastructure ecosystems. Realistic risks to resolution include late severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though status page histories show no basis for upgrades; the market awaits final confirmation amid stable operations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Volumen
$14,115Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the Services Down Parlay market has solidified at 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the March 31, 2026, resolution window closing without critical red-level incidents at Discord or Cloudflare, as verified on their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although Amazon Web Services recorded a qualifying "disrupted" severity event in early March—stemming from drone strikes on its me-central-1 region affecting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the absence of simultaneous failures across all three cloud platforms sealed the parlay's failure. This reflects the rarity of correlated outages in diversified infrastructure ecosystems. Realistic risks to resolution include late severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though status page histories show no basis for upgrades; the market awaits final confirmation amid stable operations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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