Oregon’s 2026 gubernatorial race pits Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek against Republican Christine Drazan in a rematch of their 2022 contest. Trader consensus favoring Kotek at 75.5% reflects Oregon’s long Democratic tilt—no Republican has won the governorship since 1982—combined with recent polling shifts that show Kotek edging ahead for the first time this cycle. Late September and early October surveys from DHM Research and GBAO placed her at 46% to Drazan’s 42-44% among likely voters, within margins of error but reversing earlier narrow Republican leads. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, citing structural factors and Kotek’s ability to tie Drazan to unpopular national Republican figures. A Pacific Green candidate draws a small share that could affect margins, while ballots begin mailing in mid-October.