Recent developments, including the contained Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with over 8,000 cases but limited international spread, the mpox surge in Africa under WHO review for potential PHEIC status, and isolated incidents like hantavirus on a cruise ship, have reinforced trader confidence that no novel pathogen will trigger a new pandemic declaration before 2028. Enhanced genomic surveillance, expanded wastewater monitoring, and the 2025 WHO Pandemic Agreement have strengthened early detection and response capacities since COVID-19. While WHO officials note that future pandemics remain inevitable over longer horizons, the short remaining timeframe, absence of sustained human-to-human transmission in high-risk viruses like H5N1, and ongoing Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing negotiations support the 76.5% market-implied probability for "No." Uncertainties persist around variant emergence or containment failures in conflict zones.