Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show April 2026 global surface temperatures at approximately 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, following a period of ENSO-neutral conditions after a weak La Niña. The ongoing shift toward El Niño, with an 82–98% probability of emergence during May–July per NOAA and IRI forecasts, supports moderate warming but has not yet produced the full seasonal boost typically seen later in the year. Model ensembles indicate May anomalies will likely remain in the 1.10–1.14°C range due to lingering cooling influences from early-2026 neutral conditions and natural variability, consistent with the market’s leading outcome. Upcoming June updates from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble will provide clearer signals on whether strengthening El Niño effects push readings higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 54%
<1.10ºC 22%
1.15–1.19ºC 7%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,807 Vol.
$85,807 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
22%
1.10–1.14ºC
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
7%
1.20–1.24ºC
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 54%
<1.10ºC 22%
1.15–1.19ºC 7%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,807 Vol.
$85,807 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,816 Vol.
22%
1.10–1.14ºC
$8,596 Vol.
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
$15,036 Vol.
7%
1.20–1.24ºC
$11,552 Vol.
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
$9,978 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$12,830 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show April 2026 global surface temperatures at approximately 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, following a period of ENSO-neutral conditions after a weak La Niña. The ongoing shift toward El Niño, with an 82–98% probability of emergence during May–July per NOAA and IRI forecasts, supports moderate warming but has not yet produced the full seasonal boost typically seen later in the year. Model ensembles indicate May anomalies will likely remain in the 1.10–1.14°C range due to lingering cooling influences from early-2026 neutral conditions and natural variability, consistent with the market’s leading outcome. Upcoming June updates from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble will provide clearer signals on whether strengthening El Niño effects push readings higher.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volumen
$85,807Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show April 2026 global surface temperatures at approximately 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, following a period of ENSO-neutral conditions after a weak La Niña. The ongoing shift toward El Niño, with an 82–98% probability of emergence during May–July per NOAA and IRI forecasts, supports moderate warming but has not yet produced the full seasonal boost typically seen later in the year. Model ensembles indicate May anomalies will likely remain in the 1.10–1.14°C range due to lingering cooling influences from early-2026 neutral conditions and natural variability, consistent with the market’s leading outcome. Upcoming June updates from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble will provide clearer signals on whether strengthening El Niño effects push readings higher.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$85,807Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show April 2026 global surface temperatures at approximately 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, following a period of ENSO-neutral conditions after a weak La Niña. The ongoing shift toward El Niño, with an 82–98% probability of emergence during May–July per NOAA and IRI forecasts, supports moderate warming but has not yet produced the full seasonal boost typically seen later in the year. Model ensembles indicate May anomalies will likely remain in the 1.10–1.14°C range due to lingering cooling influences from early-2026 neutral conditions and natural variability, consistent with the market’s leading outcome. Upcoming June updates from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble will provide clearer signals on whether strengthening El Niño effects push readings higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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