The market's 97% implied probability for a May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C above pre-industrial levels stems from the latest observational data and climate model runs showing temperatures tracking the multi-year warming trend. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA records confirm continued elevation from baseline rates, with ENSO-neutral conditions limiting extreme swings after the prior El Niño influence. Key resolution thresholds align with official monthly averages, and traders weigh historical analogs plus updated forecast ensembles that cluster tightly in this range. Realistic challenges include revised final datasets or an unexpected late cooling signal, though current agency monitoring indicates low likelihood of shifting outside the leading bin before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.1%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.1%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,006 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,254 Vol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,111 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,001 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,400 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,403 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The market's 97% implied probability for a May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C above pre-industrial levels stems from the latest observational data and climate model runs showing temperatures tracking the multi-year warming trend. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA records confirm continued elevation from baseline rates, with ENSO-neutral conditions limiting extreme swings after the prior El Niño influence. Key resolution thresholds align with official monthly averages, and traders weigh historical analogs plus updated forecast ensembles that cluster tightly in this range. Realistic challenges include revised final datasets or an unexpected late cooling signal, though current agency monitoring indicates low likelihood of shifting outside the leading bin before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volumen
$192,174Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The market's 97% implied probability for a May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C above pre-industrial levels stems from the latest observational data and climate model runs showing temperatures tracking the multi-year warming trend. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA records confirm continued elevation from baseline rates, with ENSO-neutral conditions limiting extreme swings after the prior El Niño influence. Key resolution thresholds align with official monthly averages, and traders weigh historical analogs plus updated forecast ensembles that cluster tightly in this range. Realistic challenges include revised final datasets or an unexpected late cooling signal, though current agency monitoring indicates low likelihood of shifting outside the leading bin before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$192,174Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's 97% implied probability for a May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C above pre-industrial levels stems from the latest observational data and climate model runs showing temperatures tracking the multi-year warming trend. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA records confirm continued elevation from baseline rates, with ENSO-neutral conditions limiting extreme swings after the prior El Niño influence. Key resolution thresholds align with official monthly averages, and traders weigh historical analogs plus updated forecast ensembles that cluster tightly in this range. Realistic challenges include revised final datasets or an unexpected late cooling signal, though current agency monitoring indicates low likelihood of shifting outside the leading bin before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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