The dominant market consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for the May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly reflects the steady long-term warming trajectory driven by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, reinforced by the most recent observational datasets from NOAA and NASA that place recent monthly anomalies within this narrow window. Natural variability from ENSO phase and regional weather patterns has not produced the larger swings needed to shift the outcome outside the favored range. A rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions or an unforeseen volcanic aerosol injection could introduce short-term cooling sufficient to alter the final monthly average, though such developments remain low-probability based on current monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant market consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for the May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly reflects the steady long-term warming trajectory driven by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, reinforced by the most recent observational datasets from NOAA and NASA that place recent monthly anomalies within this narrow window. Natural variability from ENSO phase and regional weather patterns has not produced the larger swings needed to shift the outcome outside the favored range. A rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions or an unforeseen volcanic aerosol injection could introduce short-term cooling sufficient to alter the final monthly average, though such developments remain low-probability based on current monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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