Skip to main content

Market icon
Geopolítica·Hamas

Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Hamas

Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?

Gaza

>99% probabilidad
Polymarket

$86,202 Vol.

Gaza

>99% probabilidad
Polymarket

$86,202 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.

If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.
Volumen
$86,202
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2025
Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2025, 11:17 AM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

Resultado propuesto: Gaza

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Gaza

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.

If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.
Volumen
$86,202
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2025
Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2025, 11:17 AM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.

Resultado propuesto: Gaza

Sin disputa

Resultado final: Gaza

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?" ha generado $86.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Aug 11, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?" es "Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.