Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Israel will not annex Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official Israeli government announcements, cabinet approvals, or legislative moves toward Gaza sovereignty claims in recent months. Despite accelerated West Bank land registrations as state property and settlement expansions—condemned internationally as de facto annexation—Israeli policy explicitly disavows territorial ambitions in Gaza, emphasizing temporary security buffers or demilitarization post-conflict rather than permanent incorporation. Recent Netanyahu statements focus on airstrikes against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria, with no Gaza annexation signals amid ongoing military operations. Scenarios like a decisive Hamas defeat, far-right coalition shifts, or U.S. policy changes under Trump could theoretically elevate odds, though diplomatic and demographic barriers remain substantial hurdles within the three-month window.