Democrat Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's 91.5% implied probability in the Illinois U.S. Senate race reflects the state's entrenched Democratic lean, where Chicago and suburban Cook County deliver overwhelming margins that routinely overpower downstate Republican strongholds, as seen in recent cycles like Tammy Duckworth's double-digit 2022 victory. Following the March 17 primaries, Stratton consolidated support with Gov. JB Pritzker's endorsement after topping a crowded Democratic field at 40%, while GOP nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair, advances in a low-profile contest. Absent public general election polls, traders price in historical base rates favoring Democrats by 10-15 points in open-seat scenarios. Late challenges could arise from a national Republican midterm wave, Stratton scandal, or exceptional GOP turnout, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Illinois
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Illinois
$23,477 Vol.
$23,477 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
92%
Republicano
6%
$23,477 Vol.
$23,477 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
$12,135 Vol.
92%
Republicano
$11,342 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democrat Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's 91.5% implied probability in the Illinois U.S. Senate race reflects the state's entrenched Democratic lean, where Chicago and suburban Cook County deliver overwhelming margins that routinely overpower downstate Republican strongholds, as seen in recent cycles like Tammy Duckworth's double-digit 2022 victory. Following the March 17 primaries, Stratton consolidated support with Gov. JB Pritzker's endorsement after topping a crowded Democratic field at 40%, while GOP nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair, advances in a low-profile contest. Absent public general election polls, traders price in historical base rates favoring Democrats by 10-15 points in open-seat scenarios. Late challenges could arise from a national Republican midterm wave, Stratton scandal, or exceptional GOP turnout, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$23,477Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democrat Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's 91.5% implied probability in the Illinois U.S. Senate race reflects the state's entrenched Democratic lean, where Chicago and suburban Cook County deliver overwhelming margins that routinely overpower downstate Republican strongholds, as seen in recent cycles like Tammy Duckworth's double-digit 2022 victory. Following the March 17 primaries, Stratton consolidated support with Gov. JB Pritzker's endorsement after topping a crowded Democratic field at 40%, while GOP nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair, advances in a low-profile contest. Absent public general election polls, traders price in historical base rates favoring Democrats by 10-15 points in open-seat scenarios. Late challenges could arise from a national Republican midterm wave, Stratton scandal, or exceptional GOP turnout, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$23,477Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democrat Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's 91.5% implied probability in the Illinois U.S. Senate race reflects the state's entrenched Democratic lean, where Chicago and suburban Cook County deliver overwhelming margins that routinely overpower downstate Republican strongholds, as seen in recent cycles like Tammy Duckworth's double-digit 2022 victory. Following the March 17 primaries, Stratton consolidated support with Gov. JB Pritzker's endorsement after topping a crowded Democratic field at 40%, while GOP nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair, advances in a low-profile contest. Absent public general election polls, traders price in historical base rates favoring Democrats by 10-15 points in open-seat scenarios. Late challenges could arise from a national Republican midterm wave, Stratton scandal, or exceptional GOP turnout, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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