Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary—backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker—over a crowded field including Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi and U.S. Attorney Robin Kelly has locked in a safe Democratic hold for the open Illinois Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, driving trader consensus to 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee against Republican Don Tracy. Illinois' deep-blue partisan lean, dominated by Chicago-area turnout, and no GOP Senate win since 1998 underpin this positioning, with race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball labeling it Solid Democratic. While no general election polls exist yet, a major Democratic scandal, low turnout, or national Republican wave could challenge odds ahead of the November 3 ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Illinois
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Illinois
$16,779 Vol.
$16,779 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demócrata
93%
Republicano
4%
$16,779 Vol.
$16,779 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demócrata
$7,193 Vol.
93%
Republicano
$9,585 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary—backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker—over a crowded field including Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi and U.S. Attorney Robin Kelly has locked in a safe Democratic hold for the open Illinois Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, driving trader consensus to 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee against Republican Don Tracy. Illinois' deep-blue partisan lean, dominated by Chicago-area turnout, and no GOP Senate win since 1998 underpin this positioning, with race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball labeling it Solid Democratic. While no general election polls exist yet, a major Democratic scandal, low turnout, or national Republican wave could challenge odds ahead of the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$16,779Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary—backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker—over a crowded field including Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi and U.S. Attorney Robin Kelly has locked in a safe Democratic hold for the open Illinois Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, driving trader consensus to 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee against Republican Don Tracy. Illinois' deep-blue partisan lean, dominated by Chicago-area turnout, and no GOP Senate win since 1998 underpin this positioning, with race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball labeling it Solid Democratic. While no general election polls exist yet, a major Democratic scandal, low turnout, or national Republican wave could challenge odds ahead of the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$16,779Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary—backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker—over a crowded field including Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi and U.S. Attorney Robin Kelly has locked in a safe Democratic hold for the open Illinois Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, driving trader consensus to 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee against Republican Don Tracy. Illinois' deep-blue partisan lean, dominated by Chicago-area turnout, and no GOP Senate win since 1998 underpin this positioning, with race ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball labeling it Solid Democratic. While no general election polls exist yet, a major Democratic scandal, low turnout, or national Republican wave could challenge odds ahead of the November 3 ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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