Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability that US unemployment peaks at 5.0% in 2026, driven by February's softening labor market where the rate edged to 4.4% amid unexpected 92,000 nonfarm payroll losses—the first decline in months—and rising initial jobless claims to 210,000. The Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections held year-end 2026 unemployment steady at 4.4%, aligning with consensus economist forecasts around 4.5%, though some project peaks to 4.8% amid sluggish job growth and policy uncertainty. ADP's steady March private payroll gains offer counterbalance, but tomorrow's (April 3) official March employment report and April 29-30 FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$344,388 Vol.
10 ene 2026
5,0%
60%
5.5%
24%
6.0%
20%
7.0%
14%
10,0%
5%
$344,388 Vol.
5,0%
$80,543 Vol.
60%
5.5%
$179,102 Vol.
24%
6.0%
$49,098 Vol.
20%
7.0%
$16,466 Vol.
14%
10,0%
$19,179 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability that US unemployment peaks at 5.0% in 2026, driven by February's softening labor market where the rate edged to 4.4% amid unexpected 92,000 nonfarm payroll losses—the first decline in months—and rising initial jobless claims to 210,000. The Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections held year-end 2026 unemployment steady at 4.4%, aligning with consensus economist forecasts around 4.5%, though some project peaks to 4.8% amid sluggish job growth and policy uncertainty. ADP's steady March private payroll gains offer counterbalance, but tomorrow's (April 3) official March employment report and April 29-30 FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$344,388Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability that US unemployment peaks at 5.0% in 2026, driven by February's softening labor market where the rate edged to 4.4% amid unexpected 92,000 nonfarm payroll losses—the first decline in months—and rising initial jobless claims to 210,000. The Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections held year-end 2026 unemployment steady at 4.4%, aligning with consensus economist forecasts around 4.5%, though some project peaks to 4.8% amid sluggish job growth and policy uncertainty. ADP's steady March private payroll gains offer counterbalance, but tomorrow's (April 3) official March employment report and April 29-30 FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$344,388Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability that US unemployment peaks at 5.0% in 2026, driven by February's softening labor market where the rate edged to 4.4% amid unexpected 92,000 nonfarm payroll losses—the first decline in months—and rising initial jobless claims to 210,000. The Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections held year-end 2026 unemployment steady at 4.4%, aligning with consensus economist forecasts around 4.5%, though some project peaks to 4.8% amid sluggish job growth and policy uncertainty. ADP's steady March private payroll gains offer counterbalance, but tomorrow's (April 3) official March employment report and April 29-30 FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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