Trader consensus has locked in 31°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 13, driven by real-time observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—peaking at 31°C midday amid very warm, humid conditions with partial cloud cover and light winds. China Meteorological Administration hourly data and short-range forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles confirm this maximum, as sea breezes and increasing cloudiness have capped further intensification, aligning with above-normal April highs under a subtropical ridge. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model guidance, but current atmospheric stability makes 32°C or higher improbable; final daily records expected from CMA by evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 13?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 13?
31°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$262,121 Vol.
$262,121 Vol.
13 abr 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$262,121 Vol.
$262,121 Vol.
13 abr 2026
22°C or below
$2,504 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,476 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,326 Vol.
No
25°C
$787 Vol.
No
26°C
$7,832 Vol.
No
27°C
$20,921 Vol.
No
28°C
$12,819 Vol.
No
29°C
$21,365 Vol.
No
30°C
$85,731 Vol.
No
31°C
$76,590 Vol.
Yes
32°C or higher
$30,769 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 31°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 13, driven by real-time observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—peaking at 31°C midday amid very warm, humid conditions with partial cloud cover and light winds. China Meteorological Administration hourly data and short-range forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles confirm this maximum, as sea breezes and increasing cloudiness have capped further intensification, aligning with above-normal April highs under a subtropical ridge. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model guidance, but current atmospheric stability makes 32°C or higher improbable; final daily records expected from CMA by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$262,121Fecha de finalización
13 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 31°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 13, driven by real-time observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—peaking at 31°C midday amid very warm, humid conditions with partial cloud cover and light winds. China Meteorological Administration hourly data and short-range forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles confirm this maximum, as sea breezes and increasing cloudiness have capped further intensification, aligning with above-normal April highs under a subtropical ridge. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model guidance, but current atmospheric stability makes 32°C or higher improbable; final daily records expected from CMA by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$262,121Fecha de finalización
13 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus has locked in 31°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 13, driven by real-time observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—peaking at 31°C midday amid very warm, humid conditions with partial cloud cover and light winds. China Meteorological Administration hourly data and short-range forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles confirm this maximum, as sea breezes and increasing cloudiness have capped further intensification, aligning with above-normal April highs under a subtropical ridge. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model guidance, but current atmospheric stability makes 32°C or higher improbable; final daily records expected from CMA by evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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