Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Sao Paulo el 14 de abril?
¿La temperatura más alta en Sao Paulo el 14 de abril?
25°C 100.0%
21°C o menos <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$81,236 Vol.
$81,236 Vol.
14 abr 2026
21°C o menos
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Sí
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C o más
No
25°C 100.0%
21°C o menos <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$81,236 Vol.
$81,236 Vol.
14 abr 2026
21°C o menos
$5,809 Vol.
No
22°C
$4,363 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,425 Vol.
No
24°C
$5,369 Vol.
No
25°C
$29,572 Vol.
Sí
26°C
$12,621 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,052 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,206 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,021 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,913 Vol.
No
31°C o más
$2,886 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$81,236Fecha de finalización
14 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$81,236Fecha de finalización
14 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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