Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 11 at 12°C, driven by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirming peak readings around midday under persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds averaging 10-12 km/h. Hourly data from key stations like Istanbul Airport show temperatures stabilizing near 10-12°C, with cloud cover suppressing solar heating despite a UV index up to 6—well below the April climatological average high of 16°C influenced by typical Black Sea moderation. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converged on this 10-13°C range over the past 48 hours following a low-pressure trough exit. With sunset past and no late clearing observed, realistic challenges like sudden wind shifts or measurement revisions are minimal, pending final MGM daily summary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 11?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 11?
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$55,813 Vol.
$55,813 Vol.
11 abr 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$55,813 Vol.
$55,813 Vol.
11 abr 2026
5°C or below
$1,974 Vol.
No
6°C
$3,204 Vol.
No
7°C
$1,595 Vol.
No
8°C
$3,887 Vol.
No
9°C
$3,733 Vol.
No
10°C
$6,664 Vol.
No
11°C
$5,345 Vol.
No
12°C
$6,817 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$9,007 Vol.
No
14°C
$5,666 Vol.
No
15°C or higher
$7,921 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 11 at 12°C, driven by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirming peak readings around midday under persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds averaging 10-12 km/h. Hourly data from key stations like Istanbul Airport show temperatures stabilizing near 10-12°C, with cloud cover suppressing solar heating despite a UV index up to 6—well below the April climatological average high of 16°C influenced by typical Black Sea moderation. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converged on this 10-13°C range over the past 48 hours following a low-pressure trough exit. With sunset past and no late clearing observed, realistic challenges like sudden wind shifts or measurement revisions are minimal, pending final MGM daily summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 7, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Volumen
$55,813Fecha de finalización
11 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 7, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 11 at 12°C, driven by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirming peak readings around midday under persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds averaging 10-12 km/h. Hourly data from key stations like Istanbul Airport show temperatures stabilizing near 10-12°C, with cloud cover suppressing solar heating despite a UV index up to 6—well below the April climatological average high of 16°C influenced by typical Black Sea moderation. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converged on this 10-13°C range over the past 48 hours following a low-pressure trough exit. With sunset past and no late clearing observed, realistic challenges like sudden wind shifts or measurement revisions are minimal, pending final MGM daily summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$55,813Fecha de finalización
11 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 7, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 11 at 12°C, driven by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirming peak readings around midday under persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds averaging 10-12 km/h. Hourly data from key stations like Istanbul Airport show temperatures stabilizing near 10-12°C, with cloud cover suppressing solar heating despite a UV index up to 6—well below the April climatological average high of 16°C influenced by typical Black Sea moderation. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converged on this 10-13°C range over the past 48 hours following a low-pressure trough exit. With sunset past and no late clearing observed, realistic challenges like sudden wind shifts or measurement revisions are minimal, pending final MGM daily summary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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