Spain's overwhelming 81.5% implied probability as Group H winner stems from trader consensus on their world-class depth, Euro 2024 title defense momentum, and top FIFA ranking, bolstered by a strong March 2026 friendly squad featuring Lamine Yamal's return and Rodri's midfield anchor. The recent FIFA World Cup 2026 final draw, completed days ago, locked in matchups against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde, amplifying Spain's favoritism in a group where the top two plus best third-placed teams advance. Uruguay's 15% reflects CONMEBOL qualifier grit and stars like Darwin Núñez and Federico Valverde, positioning them as realistic challengers for second amid home/away splits. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde trail at low probabilities due to lower rankings, debutant status for Cape Verde, and reliance on upsets like Saudi's 2022 stunner, with no major injury disruptions reported in recent national team updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 82%
Uruguay 15%
Arabia Saudita 2.4%
Cabo Verde 2.3%
$70,796 Vol.
$70,796 Vol.
España
82%
Uruguay
15%
Arabia Saudita
2%
Cabo Verde
2%
España 82%
Uruguay 15%
Arabia Saudita 2.4%
Cabo Verde 2.3%
$70,796 Vol.
$70,796 Vol.
España
82%
Uruguay
15%
Arabia Saudita
2%
Cabo Verde
2%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain's overwhelming 81.5% implied probability as Group H winner stems from trader consensus on their world-class depth, Euro 2024 title defense momentum, and top FIFA ranking, bolstered by a strong March 2026 friendly squad featuring Lamine Yamal's return and Rodri's midfield anchor. The recent FIFA World Cup 2026 final draw, completed days ago, locked in matchups against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde, amplifying Spain's favoritism in a group where the top two plus best third-placed teams advance. Uruguay's 15% reflects CONMEBOL qualifier grit and stars like Darwin Núñez and Federico Valverde, positioning them as realistic challengers for second amid home/away splits. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde trail at low probabilities due to lower rankings, debutant status for Cape Verde, and reliance on upsets like Saudi's 2022 stunner, with no major injury disruptions reported in recent national team updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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