Trader consensus favors the Netherlands at 55.5% implied probability to win Group F, driven by their elite FIFA ranking (7th), dominant UEFA qualifying campaign, and attacking depth featuring Xavi Simons, Cody Gakpo, and Memphis Depay, positioning them ahead in head-to-head projections against Japan and newcomers. Japan's 28.5% reflects their consistent Asian qualification dominance, high-pressing style, and 2022 World Cup upset over Germany, making them a live contender despite a tougher draw. Sweden's dramatic 3-2 playoff final victory over Poland on March 31—after Poland's 2-1 semifinal win over Albania—confirmed their spot yesterday, folding into the 16.0% for the ALB/POL/SWE/UKR path, valued for physicality but tempered by playoff route and recent inconsistencies. Tunisia trails at 2.0% as defensive underdogs with limited goal threat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPaíses Bajos 56%
Japón 28%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 16%
Túnez 2.0%
$39,043 Vol.
$39,043 Vol.
Países Bajos
56%
Japón
28%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
16%
Túnez
2%
Países Bajos 56%
Japón 28%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 16%
Túnez 2.0%
$39,043 Vol.
$39,043 Vol.
Países Bajos
56%
Japón
28%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
16%
Túnez
2%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Netherlands at 55.5% implied probability to win Group F, driven by their elite FIFA ranking (7th), dominant UEFA qualifying campaign, and attacking depth featuring Xavi Simons, Cody Gakpo, and Memphis Depay, positioning them ahead in head-to-head projections against Japan and newcomers. Japan's 28.5% reflects their consistent Asian qualification dominance, high-pressing style, and 2022 World Cup upset over Germany, making them a live contender despite a tougher draw. Sweden's dramatic 3-2 playoff final victory over Poland on March 31—after Poland's 2-1 semifinal win over Albania—confirmed their spot yesterday, folding into the 16.0% for the ALB/POL/SWE/UKR path, valued for physicality but tempered by playoff route and recent inconsistencies. Tunisia trails at 2.0% as defensive underdogs with limited goal threat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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